Bakkelund (RS Platou): the current excess of ability to the ship yards can last to the maximum for a pair of years



The ability to the world-wide ship yards currently has been attested to about 35 million tons of compensated tonnage (tslc), being reduced of a third party regarding the peak which it has been reached in 2008 conclusion ten-year-old in which an exceptional increase of the productive ability to the navalmeccanici plants has happened.

It has estimated the Norwegian society of shipbroking RS Platou, than in its last bulletin salary it has evidenced as the deliveries of new ships constructed from the world-wide ship yards have grown from 18 million tslc in 2002 to 44 million tslc in 2011 and as last year the quota deliveries it is come down of 10%.

With the current prevailing conditions of the market, that they see the naval constructors forced to accept new orders whose value does not cover the costs - it has found Jørn Bakkelund, investigator of RS Platou - "has assisted to an elimination or removal of a meaningful quota the constructive ability. This demonstrates how much is really flexible the construction ability. Some ship yards - it has specified - have closed down and others have reorganized the ability having diminished extraordinary and the turns and reducing the occupation. We have estimated that approximately about a third party of the recorded potential constructive ability in the course of the peak of 2008 it is withdrawn by the market".

According to RS Platour, the current ability to 35 million tons of compensated tonnage is still overabundant regarding the necessities that will be introduced in the next biennium: "we expect - Bakkelund has explained - than this year the excess of ability to the mercantile fleet will be pairs to about 6%, and in order to absorb this excess of tonnage it will be necessary to assist to inferior deliveries regarding the ability to 35 million tslc that we have estimated".

"Historically - it has continued Bakkelund - it has been a strong correlation between the increase of Gross Domestic Product world-wide and the increase of the question of tonnage of world-wide the mercantile fleet, made that it says us that the increase of 4.5% in the long term of the GDP previewed from the International Monetary Fund would have be translate in an increase of the question of tonnage of about 7%. Taking in consideration an increase of the limited question a little more in next the two years, since the general opinion on the increase of the GDP is inferior regarding this percentage in the long term, we have estimated that there is the necessity of the delivery of an average of 30 million tslc in next the four years so that the rate I use of world-wide the mercantile fleet can reach a balanced level of 90%. In a scene that anticipates after a 2016 medium increase of the question of tonnage of 7% and with the need to replace old tonnage, we have calculated that the ship yards will have to deliver about medium 50 million tslc per year to the aim maintaining a balanced market for the mercantile fleet. This is next to our esteem of indicated constructive ability in the peak of 2008. However we have evidenced that the construction ability is rather flexible, even if a part of such ability had to be eliminated rather than frozen waiting for 2016. A necessity of ulterior deliveries had to happen rest of the economy, clearly would have to be sent back, but the cited scene - it has concluded Bakkelund - demonstrates that the current excess of productive ability can last to the maximum for a pair of years and that at the end the ability which suppressed waiting for better times will become necessary".