The GNL is an answer to some of the problems of the marine transport, but it is too soon in order to say if it is the answer



Not there is some doubt that the increasing interest for the employment of the which liquified natural gas which combustible for the ships it is justified and it is sure equally that in the naval field will continue to grow the GNL question, thanks to its attrattività from the economic point of view and to the introduction of norms that limit the use of other fossil fuel to marine use. However it is less sure that the rhythm and the dimension of this increase will be elevated. It evidences an analysis on the perspectives of the marine question of which combustible GNL realized by Chris N the Fevre, investigator near Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES).

The Fevre clarify that the uncertainty on the rapidity and the scale of this increase is due partially to poor quality of the data on uses it of marine fuel, but mainly to the reflection on the still premature nature of the development of this market and to the uncertainties on the alternative fuel options possible.

In the conclusions of the analysis the precise Fevre that the experience until now suggests that the employment of the GNL which combustible for the ships is very probable where are anticipate some or all the following conditions: the ships operate mainly or exclusively in subject areas at the best IMO of sulfur tenor of 0.1%; the ships are of great dimensions and the costs of the fuel represent an elevated percentage of the operating costs; the ships have a programming of the travels regular and expectable; the operators are also owners of their ships; the ships follow broken that they allow an easy access with the feed plants of GNL; a relatively high level of alternation of the ships, that is an elevated frequency of new constructions or important refit of the ships exists; a relatively high level of energy demand exists auxiliary; there are important governmental incentives for the new investments that favor use it of the GNL.

The Fevre find that these conditions indicate that there are some fields of the shipping that they could be more promising for the use of the GNL respect to others: for example those of the ferries ro-ro, the cruise ships, rinfusiere, the large ones portacontainer and, naturally, the field of the ships for the transport of the which liquified natural gas.

The analysis observes that, because of the necessary costs of modernization so that the ships with propulsion fed to other fossil fuel can be converted to the use of the GNL, the majority of the ships fed to GNL will be of new construction. Moreover the owners and the operators of the ships will not be probably disposed to engage themselves to the employment of this fuel without before to conclude a contract for its supply in the long term that he guarantees is the prices that the physical delivery of the GNL. Therefore - the analysis finds - the ready suppliers of GNL to conclude such contract will supply an important at the market stimulus. According to the Fevre, moreover, the times of realization and the cost relatively low of the investment in infrastructures for the GNL supply suggest that the refueling ability would not have to constitute a limit.

The document finds then that the majority of the forecasts indicates that the total question of GNL for the shipping would have to be comprised between 25 and 30 million tons within 2030 and observes that this would demand that, calculating to spanne, between 2.000 and 6.000 ships new or reconverted are fed by GNL. To reach a fleet of these dimensions - it emphasizes the Fevre - appears difficult in consideration of the current level of the new constructions and it is considered therefore that a level of question of about 15 million tons within 2030 is a more realistic perspective, perspective that, however could change quickly if a sure number of great companies of navigation had to be engaged to use the GNL for their ships. The precise Fevre that all these forecasts exclude the ships that they transport GNL and that if all these units had to pass it I use of the single GNL as fuel this could represent about 17 million tons of question within 2030.

Specifying that permangono some potential barriers to the increment of the use of the GNL as fuel for the ships, between which lasting of the excess of ability to the fleet in many fields of the marine transport, the uncertainty on the future prices of the oil and the gas and the logistic challenges, the Fevre evidence that perhaps one of the more important obstacles to the use of the GNL is that the gas is not a solution to zero emissions. Given the continuous pressure on the marine field so that better its environmental print - the investigator explains - the shipowners could be attempted to wait for that new options to lowlands emerge carbon emissions, as the batteries and the biocarburanti.

"the GNL - it concludes the Fevre - is an answer to some of the problems of the marine transport, but it is too soon in order to say if it is the answer. Today only a meager number of great marine operators has assumed clearly a engagement regarding the ships of new construction fed to GNL. If other great companies will begin to follow their example, this will be clearly a sign of the fact that the GNL will be a fuel of important interest for the marine transport for next the twenty years".