ING Think previews that norms IMO 2020 will be able to give a ride to the rates of the containerized marine transport until +25%



The new international norms on the maximum limit of the sulfur tenor in naval fuel agreed in the within of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), that they will take effect next 1° January and that they wind down the limit from current 3.5% in the great part of world-wide the marine regions to 0.5%, will approximately involve an increase of the rates of the estimated containerized marine transport until +25%. It previews ING Think, the team of economists of the financial institution Dutch ING who take care to analyze and to preview the development trends of various economic fields.

The analysis on the impact on the shipping containerized of the norms on the sulfur tenor evidences that for portacontainer that transports containerizzari cargos pairs about 12.000 teu from Shanghai to Rotterdam with a navigation of the duration of 30 days, burning 400 tons of fuel to the day, the tariff increment will be pairs to 250 dollars for transported container teu, figure turning out from the greater cost pairs to 250 dollars/day of the 400 tons of fuel consumed daily multiplied for the 30 days of navigation, subdivided total therefore for the 12,000 teu transported. The specific relationship that, supposing that the price of the shipment of a container from 20 feet from Shanghai to Rotterdam is of about 1.000 dollars for teu, the increase of the shipping charge would be therefore of about +25% if the entire figure will be debited the customers. The precise study moreover that if a fuel burnup pairs to 400 tons to the day to cruise speed is common, the ships of new generation, that they are more efficient from the energetic point of view, are able to burn half or also less of the half than this quantitative of fuel and therefore for these ships determined additional cost from the effectiveness of the new norms could also be halved.

The document of ING Think remembers that the navigation companies have three more practicable options in order to conform the ships of own fleets to the new normative dispositions: to use fuel oil to lowest sulfur tenor (Hooligan Sulphur Fuel Oil - ULSFO), to install scrubber that they are systems for the washing of the drainage gases that use seawater or to pass to the use of natural gas which liquified which fuel for the naval propulsion.

The study asserts that the majority of the marine carriers will opt for uses it of the fuel oil to lowest sulfur tenor. To such purpose the document of ING Think finds that however it is not clear if a sufficient ability to refining will be available in order to guarantee a solid transition towards the fuel employment ULSFO and evidences also that different types of ULSFO are not necessarily compatible. The study clarifies in fact that also the same type of fuel coming from the same refinery, but supplied to ships in different resorts, can turn out incompatible and this means that a tank of the fuel would have to be almost empty before being filled up with other bunker ULSFO and this demands a more precise planning of the operations of bunkeraggio regarding that necessary one for the use of the traditional fuel oil to high sulfur content (HSFO). Moreover analysis emphasizes that if is true that if in a port is not available fuel to low sulfur content in this case to the ships is allowed to resupply itself of fuel to high sulfur content, is true also that this will involve an increase of the costs for the marine carriers as in the first next port in which there is availabilities of fuels to low sulfur content will have to unload the fuel to high sulfur content and to clean the tanks.

When to I use it of the scrubber, the document of ING Think remembers that these systems are of two types: most common they are to open cycle and they wash gases of drainage with seawater that successively, after to be cleaned up, is exhausted newly in sea, but are available also scrubber closed cycle that stores slags of the washings on board let alone scrubber hybrids that can make both the things. Relationship finds that if the scrubber closed cycle demands that the navigation companies dispose the residual ones of exhaust, that it turns out is difficult that expensive, the scrubber to open cycle they are source of worry for the atmosphere because of the drainage of chemicals and residual in sea.

At last the passage to the use of the which liquified natural gas demands process of a more complex and expensive conversion regarding the other solutions, as it needs mainly of modifications to the engine of the ship that could not be possible for ships that they are not managed for the employment of this fuel. Moreover the systems of bunkeraggio of GNL are relatively little and not available in the majority of the ports.