The war of the custom offices between the USA and China penalizes the two nations but it benefits other economies



In the first half of this year the custom offices introduced in the course of 2018 from the United States on producing coming by China have involved a decrease of 25% about of the American imports of this goods. It evidences a new study of the Conference of the United Nations on the Commerce and Development (UNCTAD) that it emphasizes as the American custom offices are damaging are the economy of the USA that of China having provoked to a fort decrease of the bilateral commercial exchanges and marks more elevated for the consumers and having provoked also a diversion of the commercial flows increasing the imports in the coming United States of goods from nations not involved in this commercial dispute.

The search of the UNCTAD quantifies in about 21 billion dollars the effects of such diversion of commerce in the first half of this year, that it implies that the amount of clean the commercial losses piles to about 14 billion dollars. The analysis clarifies that in the first half of the 2018 United States they have imported goods subject to custom offices from China for about 130 billion dollars, while in the first semester of the 2019 value of this commercial flow is come down to about 95 billion dollars, for a decrease of the imports of the USA from China pairs to 35 billion dollars (or about 25%). This loss of value of the imports of 35 billion is replaced for 63% about (21 billion dollars) from coming imports from other Countries, while the remaining quota pairs to 14 billion dollars has gone lost because of smaller the question in the United States and of the insufficient ability to exports towards the USA from the remainder of the world. The precise search that such diversion has carried substantial benefits to the economies of Taiwan, Mexico, European Union and Vietnam.

The study emphasizes that, however, the reduction of the American imports from China demonstrates also the competitiveness of the Chinese companies that, although huge custom offices, have been able to maintain 75% of the exports towards the USA.

The search of the UNCTAD has found that the cost of the custom offices generally is transferred on consumers American, but also has found some indication that it could suggest that recently the Chinese companies could have begun to react to the custom offices reducing the prices to the export, absorbing therefore to a part of the cost of the custom offices pairs to about eight points percentages, indications - specific the study - than but they would have to be supported from ulterior data that soon could be available.

The study has not analyzed the impact of the Chinese custom offices on the imports from the USA, but the UNCTAD considers that the qualitative results are probably analogous to those of the USA custom offices on the Chinese produced ones: it mark, therefore, plus elevated for the Chinese consumers and losses for the American exporter.