Independent journal on economy and transport policy
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In the third quarter there was a rebound in the volume of world trade
However, the year-on-year change is negative
December 21, 2020
In the third quarter of this year, after a fall of -12.7% in quarter, the volume of world trade in goods was increased by +11.6% compared to the second quarter. However despite the rebound - specified the World Trade Organization (WTO) - the volume of trade over the period July-September 2020 was -5.6% lower compared to the same period last year.
The WTO pointed out that the recovery in volume growth trade in the third quarter of 2020 coincided with the easing of the blocking measures taken to covid-19 pandemic in Europe and North America. In addition the recovery was also supported by extensive fiscal and monetary policy in the main economies, as well as adaptation to the situation in key sectors, such as those online sales and service providers in the United States and in Europe, as companies and families have adopted to facilitate work and home purchases. The trade, on the other hand, remained weak in South and Central America and in other regions due to peak infections and lack of fiscal and monetary policy capabilities.
The WTO announced that in the third quarter of 2020 the more industrialized have seen a more exports of goods, while the rate of expansion is the regions that export to the mainly natural resources. An increase in exports to double digit compared to the previous quarter was north America (+20.1%), Europe (+19.3%) and Asia (with a +10.1% - the WTO pointed out - which was found to be less accentuated due to the smaller decline marked in the second quarter). Weaker growth has been in South and Central America (+3.1%) and in other regions (+3.3%). The WTO has specified that, however, on an annual basis, exports were still falling in North America (-9.0% on the third quarter of 2019), Europe (-5.4%), South and Central America (-3,4%) and in the other regions (-11.4% ), with the sole exception asia where regional exports have slightly exceeded the level of the same period a year ago (+0.4%).
With regard to the volumes of imports of goods, in the third quarter of this year, after falling significantly in the second quarter, were faster growing in North America (+16.6% compared to the previous quarter) and In Europe (+15.0%). On the other hand, in Asia, where exports recorded a significant increase, imports instibed a modest increase in the by +2.1%, a slight increase - explained the WTO - which suggests a increase in trade surpluses in the region. The South and Central America, on the other hand, recorded a further decline in the -0.7%, while imports into the other regions increased by a total of +3.2%. As regards the year-on-year change, in third quarter of this year the import volumes of the goods compared to the same period of the previous year in regions, including North America (-4.7%), South and Central America (-19.4%), Europe (-6.4%), Asia ( -4.7%) and other regions (-14.7%).
In the first nine months of this year, the total volume of world trade was down by -8.2% compared to the same period of 2019. This is a decrease lower than the -9.2% drop expected for the whole of 2020 by the most recent WTO forecasts, but - pointed out the Wto World Trade Championship - the latter percentage takes note of the recent resurgence of the pandemic and its effect on trade in the fourth quarter.
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