Independent journal on economy and transport policy
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SHIPPING
The extension of the EU ETS to the maritime transport sector has not led to major changes in the shipping market
This is stated in a report adopted by the European Commission, which found no evidence of tendencies towards evasion or circumvention of the rule
Bruxelles
March 19, 2025
The extension of the EU ETS to the maritime transport sector, the
European Effect Gas Emission Trading Scheme
greenhouse, which has been implemented since January 1, 2024, has not
brought about important changes in the shipping market. The
states the first report on the implementation of the extension to the
ETS sector adopted yesterday by the European Commission
specifying that there is no significant evidence of trends
evasion or circumvention of the rule. The analysis of data on the
ship traffic - explains the report - shows no evidence of a
general trend in the relocation of
transshipment of containers nor does it show clear evidence that
suggest that shipping companies are adding
calls at neighbouring non-EU ports.
The study explains that "by analyzing market trends
In the first three quarters of 2024, available data shows that
In 2024, there were major changes in traffic
maritime and on routes. However - the report clarifies - these
changes seem mainly related to ongoing impacts
Red Sea crisis, which has led many companies to
to divert their routes around South Africa, via the
Cape of Good Hope".
"To distinguish the most
the effects of the Red Sea from those of the extension
of the ETS - the report specifies - the analysis compares the trends
in EU and non-EU ports, taking into account their activity
their position and their exposure to the crisis
of the Red Sea. The analysis - the report points out - does not show
evidence of a general trend in the relocation of
container transshipment activities, with non-EU ports
that would benefit from a decrease in activity
port in EU ports. There is also no clear evidence that
suggest that shipping companies are adding
calls at neighbouring non-EU ports or by changing the order of their
port calls to circumvent ETS obligations. In addition, the analysis
of the available data on two case studies (Spain-Italy and
Bulgaria-Neighbouring Countries) does not provide evidence of a move
modal towards road transport. What's more, the data
do not indicate an increase in the use of more
outside the scope of the system or ship transfers
ship, which could suggest that companies are
implementing such evasive behaviors".
"When
long-term indicators, including
Announcements of planned routes for 2025 and investments
planned in ports - the report continues - the analysis does not reveal
recognizable trends that could indicate a change in the
market behaviour resulting from the ETS extension to transport
maritime. At the same time, the study highlights the panorama
of the shipping sector, for example with the
containerized shipping companies that quickly adapt their
their routes and operations in response to the Red Sea crisis.
Although some examples suggest that companies could
consider circumvention behaviour when
plan their future routes - the report further specifies -
The analysis does not provide conclusive and general evidence of such a trend.
In addition, planned investments in ports, both in the EU and in the
neighboring countries, are not experiencing a turnaround
evident compared to the trends already underway in recent years
years, with many ports continuing to plan investments
ambitious to increase their competitiveness and share
market conditions, in particular for the transhipment of
containers".
Regarding the impact of the inclusion of shipping in the
ETS on maritime transport costs, the report specifies
that 'it is envisaged that the extension of the ETS to transport
and the obligation for shipping companies to return
EU allowances will, on average, increase total transport costs
maritime by 3.7% in 2024, if no enforcement measures are taken
energy efficiency or emission reduction by
operators and/or shipowners. Larger increases expected in 2025
and in 2026 related to the step-by-step approach. These costs are
generally transferred by shipping companies to
shippers, with a relatively limited impact on prices
transport totals. The ETS surcharges imposed by the
navigation in 2024 - notes the report adopted by the
European Commission - represent an increase in the tariffs of
transport between 1% and 5% for transport services
ocean shipping of containers and between 3% and 11% for the various
ferry lines in Europe. The analysis - also specifies the
report - shows no evidence of a reduction in the services of
maritime transport to EU islands or to regions
outermost regions, with port traffic and
transshipment that remain relatively stable".
The report stresses, however, that if this first analysis
"It finds no evidence of major changes directly
attributable to the introduction of the EU ETS, these conclusions
should be considered with caution due to the limitations of
this analysis. In particular, the document explains,
significant spillover impacts of the Red Sea crisis on the
maritime traffic, the limited time elapsed since its
introduction and therefore limited experience in implementing the
system for maritime emissions and data limitations are
all factors that affect the limits of the analysis. This report
should therefore be considered as the first step of
an ongoing process that provides the basis for future analysis and
possible improvements to the monitoring approach, in particular
particularly when it comes to considering future prospects,
including the review of the entry into force of the FuelEU Regulation
Maritime from January 2025".
Yesterday the European Commission adopted another report which
Evaluate the potential inclusion of vessels between 400 and 5,000 tons
under the EU Monitoring Regulation,
reporting and verification (MRV) of greenhouse gas emissions
Maritime inclusion, which - the report notes - could increase
the amount of emissions covered by the legislation by about
9% while expanding the number of ships regulated by
about 42%. In particular, the analysis examined the costs
related to the MRV procedures, concluding that these
annual costs for smaller vessels would be
similar, if not slightly higher, than those for more
Large. Consequently - the report notes - the balance between costs
and additional greenhouse gas emissions monitored
it is less favorable for smaller boats.
In addition, the report notes that the net present value of costs
additional administrative requirements for businesses and authorities
is higher than the monetary potential of the savings
on greenhouse gas emissions attributable to the Regulation alone
maritime MRV. However, the analysis suggests that these results
could change if emissions savings were taken into account
of greenhouse gases from the possible integration of vessels
smaller in other greenhouse gas mitigation policies,
such as the EU ETS and FuelEU. An assessment of these potentials
additional benefits will be considered in the context of
of the revision of the EU ETS directive scheduled for 2026.
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