The extension of the EU ETS to the maritime transport sector, the European Effect Gas Emission Trading Scheme greenhouse, which has been implemented since January 1, 2024, has not brought about important changes in the shipping market. The states the first report on the implementation of the extension to the ETS sector adopted yesterday by the European Commission specifying that there is no significant evidence of trends evasion or circumvention of the rule. The analysis of data on the ship traffic - explains the report - shows no evidence of a general trend in the relocation of transshipment of containers nor does it show clear evidence that suggest that shipping companies are adding calls at neighbouring non-EU ports.

The study explains that "by analyzing market trends In the first three quarters of 2024, available data shows that In 2024, there were major changes in traffic maritime and on routes. However - the report clarifies - these changes seem mainly related to ongoing impacts Red Sea crisis, which has led many companies to to divert their routes around South Africa, via the Cape of Good Hope".

"To distinguish the most the effects of the Red Sea from those of the extension of the ETS - the report specifies - the analysis compares the trends in EU and non-EU ports, taking into account their activity their position and their exposure to the crisis of the Red Sea. The analysis - the report points out - does not show evidence of a general trend in the relocation of container transshipment activities, with non-EU ports that would benefit from a decrease in activity port in EU ports. There is also no clear evidence that suggest that shipping companies are adding calls at neighbouring non-EU ports or by changing the order of their port calls to circumvent ETS obligations. In addition, the analysis of the available data on two case studies (Spain-Italy and Bulgaria-Neighbouring Countries) does not provide evidence of a move modal towards road transport. What's more, the data do not indicate an increase in the use of more outside the scope of the system or ship transfers ship, which could suggest that companies are implementing such evasive behaviors".

"When long-term indicators, including Announcements of planned routes for 2025 and investments planned in ports - the report continues - the analysis does not reveal recognizable trends that could indicate a change in the market behaviour resulting from the ETS extension to transport maritime. At the same time, the study highlights the panorama of the shipping sector, for example with the containerized shipping companies that quickly adapt their their routes and operations in response to the Red Sea crisis. Although some examples suggest that companies could consider circumvention behaviour when plan their future routes - the report further specifies - The analysis does not provide conclusive and general evidence of such a trend. In addition, planned investments in ports, both in the EU and in the neighboring countries, are not experiencing a turnaround evident compared to the trends already underway in recent years years, with many ports continuing to plan investments ambitious to increase their competitiveness and share market conditions, in particular for the transhipment of containers".

Regarding the impact of the inclusion of shipping in the ETS on maritime transport costs, the report specifies that 'it is envisaged that the extension of the ETS to transport and the obligation for shipping companies to return EU allowances will, on average, increase total transport costs maritime by 3.7% in 2024, if no enforcement measures are taken energy efficiency or emission reduction by operators and/or shipowners. Larger increases expected in 2025 and in 2026 related to the step-by-step approach. These costs are generally transferred by shipping companies to shippers, with a relatively limited impact on prices transport totals. The ETS surcharges imposed by the navigation in 2024 - notes the report adopted by the European Commission - represent an increase in the tariffs of transport between 1% and 5% for transport services ocean shipping of containers and between 3% and 11% for the various ferry lines in Europe. The analysis - also specifies the report - shows no evidence of a reduction in the services of maritime transport to EU islands or to regions outermost regions, with port traffic and transshipment that remain relatively stable".

The report stresses, however, that if this first analysis "It finds no evidence of major changes directly attributable to the introduction of the EU ETS, these conclusions should be considered with caution due to the limitations of this analysis. In particular, the document explains, significant spillover impacts of the Red Sea crisis on the maritime traffic, the limited time elapsed since its introduction and therefore limited experience in implementing the system for maritime emissions and data limitations are all factors that affect the limits of the analysis. This report should therefore be considered as the first step of an ongoing process that provides the basis for future analysis and possible improvements to the monitoring approach, in particular particularly when it comes to considering future prospects, including the review of the entry into force of the FuelEU Regulation Maritime from January 2025".

Yesterday, the European Commission adopted another report that Evaluate the potential inclusion of vessels between 400 and 5,000 tons under the EU Monitoring Regulation, reporting and verification (MRV) of greenhouse gas emissions Maritime inclusion, which - the report notes - could increase the amount of emissions covered by the legislation by about 9% while expanding the number of ships regulated by about 42%. In particular, the analysis examined the costs related to the MRV procedures, concluding that these annual costs for smaller vessels would be similar, if not slightly higher, than those for more Large. Consequently - the report notes - the balance between costs and additional greenhouse gas emissions monitored it is less favorable for smaller boats. In addition, the report notes that the net present value of costs additional administrative requirements for businesses and authorities is higher than the monetary potential of the savings on greenhouse gas emissions attributable to the Regulation alone maritime MRV. However, the analysis suggests that these results could change if emissions savings were taken into account of greenhouse gases from the possible integration of vessels smaller in other greenhouse gas mitigation policies, such as the EU ETS and FuelEU. An assessment of these potentials additional benefits will be considered in the context of of the revision of the EU ETS directive scheduled for 2026.