The decarbonisation of maritime transport will be more in the EU and the US. This is provided for by the "Outlook on the Sustainable Maritime Transport", a study carried out by Eni, Fincantieri and RINA with the technical support of Bain & Company Italia, which was presented today in Rome at the presence of the Minister for the Environment and Energy Security, Gilberto Pichetto Fratin. The study, which aims to give a contribution to accelerate the decarbonisation process of the maritime transport sector in line with the Net Zero target to 2050, is part of the broader context of the signed on March 25, 2024 by Eni, Fincantieri and RINA with the will to develop a global observatory on the prospects of evolution of sustainable decarbonisation solutions for the sector in the medium to long term.

The study finds that the maritime sector is currently dependent on mainly from traditional fuels that make up the 93% of total consumption and notes that the objective of zero emissions by 2050 is generating significant change in industry, with an increasing adoption of different sources of propulsion. In 2023, about 50% of new ship orders are has been directed towards alternative fuels, with a tendency towards towards greater sustainability. In addition, the ports are by starting to respond to these new needs, developing infrastructure to support different technology and fuels. However, the document specifies, these efforts do not are still sufficient.

The study specifies that the adoption of new technologies and alternative fuels will depend on a multiplicity of of factors of varying complexity, including national and regional energy policies, consumer behaviour, macroeconomic dynamics, geopolitical trends and risks associated with the supply chain, as well as the technological development of the different solutions. The Outlook analyzes three future scenarios based on different levels of ambition decarbonisation, technological advances and availability of fuels and infrastructure. Forecasts indicate a faster decarbonisation in the European Union and the United States, while in Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world, the use of fossil fuels and LNG will continue to predominate, accounting for about 70% of the energy mix by 2050.

In particular, the study explains that in the period 2030-2040 Europe and North America will see a significant shift from fossil fuels to HVO biofuels - which will be the first pillar of the transition - and LNG, also in bio form. For As for the former, they are already available in ports and offer some cost resilience; The second option remains economically competitive for the next decade, while having to face the increasing penalties provided for starting from from 2040.

The study also notes that in order to achieve neutrality carbon by 2050 it will also be necessary to explore new alternative fuels, such as synthetic fuels produced by green hydrogen, which will nevertheless become competitive with the fossil fuels only from 2040.

In the long term, biofuels produced from raw materials and synthetic fuels will be crucial for the decarbonisation of medium and long-haul merchant vessels, while bioenergy will be sufficient for short-haul vessels. As far as cruises are concerned, in addition to HVO biofuels, there are provides for the use of synthetic fuels for the ships of the medium-small segment (luxury and exploration), while for Large/medium-sized ships (upper premium and contemporary) are provides for greater dependence on bioenergy, such as biofuels HVO, bioLNG and biomethanol.

The Outlook stresses that the transition will require, in the significant investments in ports to adapt the infrastructure necessary for the supply of fuels alternatives: only in the European Union is it estimated that they will be necessary up to 24 billion euros. In terms of the resources needed, the HVO biofuels and LNG will have a limited impact (around 15%) thanks to the possibility of exploiting the infrastructures already Existing. Synthetic fuels, on the other hand, will have a significant incidence (about 85%), since the related infrastructures are yet to be developed.