Rose-colored future for the shipping, but with some risk



In the next few years a prosecuzione of the positive development trend of the market of the marine transport is attended, but unfavorable and complex conditions of the commercial exchanges could determine an abrupt impact negative on this tendency to the rise. It has evidenced the London society of Maritime search and advising Strategies International (MSI) that, therefore, it has suggested to the shipowners to put the champagne in the fridge, but to use precaution in deciding in which moment to uncork the bottle.

"The medium rate of growth annual compound of the marine transport - it has found Adam Kent, managing of MSI - has shown an improvement in order almost all the period between 2013 and 2017 and in next the four years will be equaled or improved in all the fields, except for those of the crude oil and the gas of liquified oil". In order to explain as MSI has elaborated own forecasts, Kent has specified that the society, "in order to define the changes in existence, has used own models owners in order to estimate the rates of growth of the most meaningful recorded bilateral commercial flows in last the five years and for next the five. Many of the flows in more fast increase - it has announced - are relative to routes that have not recorded a meaningful increase in last the five years". Moreover Kent has evidenced that, "for next the five years, all the fields of the marine transport continuous China to being fundamental in the relative equation to the question, but - has specified - is probable that political and strategies will play a more and more important role".

Relatively to the offer of marine transport, MSI considers that, graces to a number of deliveries of new ships inferior to the waits and to an elevated level of demolitions of old units, in next the 2-4 years the world-wide fleet will mark a next or inferior rate of growth to +2.5%, tendency that would have to limit the risk of an ability excess. In terms of economic perspectives, Kent has announced that the surveys of the MSI show in recent months that in order almost all the types of ships the hire installments have reached rock bottom or turned out in increase, with a happened important increase for ships GNL. "However - he has emphasized - as the shipowners estimate the perspectives for 2018 depend very from the tempistica. An appraisal of the point of break-even when a ship is compared last year five-year-old bought in 2012 with a ten-year-old bought demonstrates that the better choice is that than to be patients".

According to MSI, this year the annual medium economic performances produced ships to rinfusiere and portacontainer will show limited increases much, with the portacontenitori that they will mark turned out better after 2018, always that the shipowners do not decide to increase the rhythm of the orders for the construction of new ships. "The current big wave of obvious optimism in the market of the shipping - Kent has asserted - seems justified, but this perspective is not lacking in risks. A race to the new orders could, within a pair of years, to put to risk the resumption. Moreover the geopolitical factors will have a role sure. Therefore, if many shipowners have put a bottle of champagne in ice, when to uncork it their ability depends on to estimate the market correctly and to obtain the best ones turned out".