If the value of world trade is in decrease since mid-2022, mainly due to the significant decline in trade in goods, which continued in the first three quarters of 2023, while service trades shown greater resilience resulting in growth throughout the period, on the other hand, in the fourth quarter of 2023, a slight increase in the value of trade in goods and a decline in trade in services. This is foreseen by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) which is expected to take place in the fourth In the first quarter of this year, the value of world trade was approximately $30.7 trillion, a reduction of about $1.5 trillion (-5%) compared to the record level of 2022. In particular, it is expects that in the fourth quarter of 2023, the trade value of goods will decrease by about two trillion dollars (-8%), while The value of trade in services will grow by around 500 billion dollars (+7%).

UNCTAD explained that the contraction in trade World Cup in 2023 is mainly a consequence of the the decline in demand in developed countries, the the performance of East Asian economies and the decline in commodity prices. These are all factors that collectively contributed to a significant contraction in the trade in goods, while trade in services recorded a growth for most of this year, an uptick - has specified UNCTAD - attributed to the delayed recovery from the crisis due to Covid-19. However, the recovery in the service sectors has slowed down significantly during the second half of the 2023. The decline in trade was more pronounced developing countries, with a decrease in the South-South trade for much of 2023. These trends - has UNCTAD - can be attributed not only to the declined in the East Asian regions, but also in the Declining trade between Asian economies.

With regard to expectations for 2024, UNCTAD highlighted that the Forecasts for global trade remain highly uncertain and generally pessimistic and, although some economic indicators suggest potential improvements, it is expected that persistent geopolitical tensions, high debt levels and widespread fragility of economies will have a negative impact on the global trading system.