Once completed, the new bridge over the Strait of Messina could cause a loss of the sea traffic landing at the port of Gioia Tauro between 11% and 17% percent of container ships touching the Calabrian terminal container. A percentage range that is calculated on the basis of the container carriers that climbed the port of Gioia Tauro last year and with the two extremes of the range defined depending on whether the ships were fully loaded or navigated in the ballast. But the bleeding could be far more copious. The probation is compulsory because the variables that compete to define these percentages are numerous.

The two main variables are in the hands of the authorities and in those of the shipping companies, subjects that can both compete to introduce numerous other factors of the equation. It is, for the authorities, the determination of the exact measure of the height of the bridge's intradox relative to the sea level. A height has so far been cited and has already been discussed, because government officials have been scraming to compare it to those of bridges already in service that, in their words, would not limit modern naval traffic. Examples of all the wrong, having been taken in reference to bridges whose heights do not correspond to those mentioned or placed at sites that are certainly not strategic compared to the main flows of maritime traffic ( of the April 4 and May 25 2023). Errors that, if they were just flour from government officials, are serious. They are serious and troubling if they have been committed by reporting data reported to them by alleged experts. The third hypothesis, the most likely, is that in order to defend against the sword it treats a project all means and any consideration is deemed valid.

The variable in hand with the government, or in any case to the maritime authority that will be charged with defining it, is therefore the definition of the maximum height of the ships with respect to their floating line that they will be able to pass under the new bridge. So far the government has been limited to making it known that the height of the bridge's intradox in its central part, of the length of 600 meters, will be 65 meters from the surface of the sea in the presence of the maximum load conditions of the bridge and 70 metres in the absence of heavy loads on the infrastructure. It is evident that these measures will have to be established precisely when the bridge will have to enter into operation. How much "heavy traffic" lowers the deck of how much? Will the authorities establish hourly slots for the transit of heavy vehicular traffic on the bridge and for the passage of ships? Fixed times, such as those of the ferries that currently unite the shores of Sicily and Calabria?

When the authorities have imposed limits on the height of the ships, they will be the shipping companies to introduce the second main variable : which and how many ships of their fleets will decide not to have them transacted into the Strait of Messina avoiding that some part of the dead opera will enter into collision with the bridge? Because if the authorities determine that the maximum height of the vessels referred to the waterline (usually defined measure air draught or air draft) will be, we lay, by 65 metres, each ride-hailing company will have to autonomously decide which ones vessels of their own fleet and with how much cargo on board will be able to pass through the Straits. If the authorities set the height at 65 metres, it is very unlikely that the companies will decide to transit the Straits with air draught of 64 metres, but not even those high 63 or 62 metres. The bridge, in fact, will overlook a liquid territory subject to the wave motion and winds, two among other variables that can produce remarkable variations of the maximum height of the ship from the surface of the sea. It is unlikely that the shipping company, nor the commander of the ship, will give up transit under the bridge if not in the presence of an adequate margin of safety. We already see them as the directors of the fleets attacked by a nightmare : that of a ship that, in a worldview, impacted on a billion-dollar infrastructure of a few politicians who might have wanted to smash the territory in another life. national and in this, perhaps affected by the law of the contraption, he seems intent on rambling what now appears to him as a ripple.

Moving from the assumptions to more concrete elements, it can be detected that last year the port of Gioia Tauro has been scaled repeatedly by at least 104 container ships employed both on intercontinental sea routes and on those regional. On the basis of tables set out by PIANC, the international association whose purpose is to provide specialist advice for the design of infrastructure for ports and waterways, 12 of these vessels, of capacity between 21,237 teu and 23,656 teu, or 11% percent of the total, would present an air draught of more than 65 metres when they navigate the full load and 18 of these vessels, of capacity between 14,000 teu and 23,656 teu, or 17% percent of the total, would have an air draught of more than 65 meters when they navigate ballast.

But these are percentages that do not include a necessary margin of safety, the "air draught clearance" that-recalls the PIANC-is indispensable for taking into account environmental factors such as ondoso motion and wind or other endogenous elements or exogens such as the speed of the ship or the congestion of maritime traffic. The PIANC suggests what this margin of safety may be and, by applying it, the percentage of container ships that last year could not have reached the port of Gioia Tauro by passing through the Strait rises to 15% considering all 104 full cargo container ships (16 vessels on the total) and even 28% with all ships sailing in ballast (29 out of 104).

Very high percentages, both the minimum and the maximum, which are all the more relevant taking into account that it is the mother ships that approve to Gioia Tauro to discharge containers that are largely transshipped on smaller vessels to be distributed at the regional level. It is the core business of a port of transhipment such as the Calabrian port, which, losing the inflow of its mother ships, would certainly lose a large share of other containerized volumes that are largely linked to traffic in the full intercontinental container of higher capacity.

That the problem is real, in addition to these indicative figures, suggests the warning not to build a bridge over the Strait of Messina that was too low by Luigi Merlo, past president of the Port Authority of Genoa and currently an executive of the MSC shipowner group ( of the February 23 2023). MSC, in addition to being a world leader in the container shipping market, is the company that relaunched the port of Gioia Tauro on the international stage by carrying its own ships, which still accounts for the preponderant part of the traffic in the calabrian stopover. But it is also the group that operates the sole container terminal of the port of Gioia Tauro. So the notice is evidently based on considerations related to the characteristics of the MSC fleet and it leaves the assumption that, if an obstacle such as the new bridge could be impacting the operational activity of the fleet of the company, MSC could direct its ships elsewhere.

Certainly the ships of MSC, as of other companies, to reach the port of Gioia Tauro from the Suez Canal could carry out the periplo of Sicily. At least the biggest ones. However, given that currently the latter in Italy only touch Gioia Tauro, it is possible that MSC, and with you other companies, could decide to make use of other Mediterranean transhipment ports rather than other ports.

This risk, moreover, if it is anything but remote for Gioia Tauro, is also run by other Italian ports, both those that are connected by feeder sea lines to the Calabrian stir and those who could also lose a share of ships of large capacity that could not transact in the Strait of Messina.

Given that, as it seems certain, the bridge will be done, perhaps already now is the time to assess the future scenario and, if possible, identify countermeasures.

As they say : startled ports, half saved.

Bruno Bellio