The new policy measures defined by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to decarbonize shipping are ambitious enough to lead the transition to zero-emission scalable fuels, but these fuels will have success only if they benefit from significant incentives and, in the time, for harsher penalties for non-compliance. This is highlighted by a new report by the Getting to Zero Coalition and the Global Maritime Forum (GMF) which highlights how fuels scalable zero-emission devices such as green ammonia and methanol have the highest potential to enable achieve the industry's 2040 targets, but their supply chains of value must be developed within the next decade to ensure their commercial viability.

The report "IMO's policy measures: What's next for shipping's fuel transition?" specifies that the forecasts based on the Total Cost of Ownership methodology of UMAS and UCL and over 30 interviews with stakeholders to analyze the capital investments and operational options of the following the adoption by the IMO of the Global Fuel Intensity (GFI) and penalties for non-compliance notes that dual-fuel vessels powered by liquefied natural gas and ammonia will be the most competitive options in terms of costs by the mid-1930s, with ammonia will take over from approximately 2037.

The document specifies that, although there are many different types of compliance pathways with respect to IMO standards, the increasing severity of the GFI and higher penalties will favor scalable zero-emission fuels, moving the industry away from fuel-based options such as liquefied natural gas and directing it towards fossil fuels e-fuels based on green hydrogen. Thus highlighting that the e-fuels offer maritime transport the most high in achieving its decarbonisation targets to the analysis makes it clear that adoption is needed and the development of the value chain so that achieve commercial viability in good time.

The analysis explains that TCO modelling reveals that, even without incentives to stimulate the uptake of e-fuels, it is likely that in the next decade fuels will be significantly more expensive than gas liquefied natural and ammonia. LNG will have the cost between 2030 and 2035, although this This could extend to 2037 thanks to the use of carbon capture and storage systems on board ships. On the other hand, ammonia, in particular blue ammonia, is destined to become the most competitive option in terms of costs from 2037. The report notes that, given the long duration of these investments, it is likely that orders of ammonia-fuelled dual-fuel ships are already becoming today the competitive choice. However, to ensure that alternatives scalable to e-fuel are ready in time, IMO guidelines should introduce incentives to ensure their competitiveness already today.

"The new IMO regulatory framework is a step forward - explained Jesse Fahnestock, director for the decarbonisation of the Global Maritime Forum - however, if the e-fuels do not become competitive in a short time, there is the risk that the sector will run into bottlenecks with the intensification of decarbonization efforts". "Taking into account the demand for decarbonisation In the long term, he added, order dual-fuel ships capable of Running on e-fuel already seems like a decision intelligent. But future policy adjustments can be made much to encourage investment in production facilities e-fuel".

"Now," Fahnestock concluded. We have a base legislation, but further developments and adjustments are needed for e-fuels to become sustainable in a phase early enough to achieve the ambitions of decarbonization of the sector. Although doing nothing is no longer one option, the rules must still be defined in such a way as to incentivise the investments needed for the future of transport maritime".