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05 November 2024 - Year XXVIII
Independent journal on economy and transport policy
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In the next few months the marine transport will have to get to terms with a deficiency of container availability
A relationship of the World Shipping Council examines the evolution of the question and the offer of box
May 17, 2011

The World Shipping Council (WSC) has published the relationship "Container Supply Review" in which it examines the consistency of the world-wide fleet of container concluding that this year the market will be found to tackle to a deficiency of availability of container in the period of peak of the marine transport.

Currently the world-wide fleet of container is constituted gives about 18.605.000 million pieces, for a volume pairs to 28.535.000 of container from 20 ' (teu). The WSC finds as the world-wide recession of 2009 has had a remarkable impact on the production of the container, field that in the five years new precedence had recorded a medium question of container pairs more than three million than container teu per year.

In 2009, because of the crisis, the world-wide production of new container of single 450,000 teu is included the orders sent back from 2008. This has determined a total decrease of 1.4% of the consistency of the world-wide fleet of container after years of continuous expansion. Moreover in 2009 the question of container already in service has been contained also because of the decrease of the containerized marine traffic, first happened in the history of the containerized transport.

In 2009 therefore, to beyond collapse of the container production, they were million the container empty waiting for being used. In the course of the 2010 resumption of the containerized marine traffic it has happened ahead of schedule and it has involved the employment of the fleet previously not used. Such unexpected question is determined also by the decision of the navigation companies to that is operate the services of line in modality slow-steaming, reducing the speed of the ships in order to diminish the fuel consumption, modality that returns the employment of a greater number of container indispensable (is calculated that it has been necessary to use 1,4 million teu in more).

Marine carriers and societies of chartering container therefore have addressed to the producers for the new acquisition of container (60% about of the production are bought by the charters) and the factories have resumed gradually the activity having arrived to end 2010 to produce altogether about 2,5 million teu. However at the beginning of the 2011 world-wide fleet of containers it had an inferior consistency (about three million teu in less) regarding that which it would be reached if the production were continued following the increase trend before-crisis.

The relationship evidences as, with the sparsity of availability of containers happened in 2010, the marine carriers is forced to take a series of often expensive measures in order to increase the availability and the use of the fleet of existing container, between which the empty transfer of container from regions in which the fleet it was exceeding with it I use of ulterior ships only employed for the empty transport of the container, the reduction of the period of time in which the container they are made unusable and the dismissal of the old dismissione of the container.

Also with the resumption of the production of the container by the factories happened in 2011, year in which is previewed the construction of 3,5 million container teu arriving not more than 4,0-4,5 million new teu if they come anticipated orders - the relationship observes - already various sources indicate that in the course of this year the container supply can be insufficient to satisfy the question. Moreover in the 2011 prices of the container they are to the historical maximum and they are destined to remain high in the course of the year.

These and other factors - the relationship concludes - will determine difficulty in the finding of container in the course of the second half of 2011 and in 2012.


Growth and replacement of global container TEU fleet for 1990-2009 and projected 2010-15






Fleet
addition


%*


Fleet
replaced


%*


Total
output


End-year
fleet size


Profile Historic


pre-1990


5,960,000


-


2,215,000


-


8,235,000


5,960,000


1990


415,000


7.0


390,000


6.5


805,000


6,375,000


1991


530,000


8.3


390,000


6.1


920,000


6,905,000


1992


725,000


10.5


410,000


5.9


1,135,000


7,630,000


1993


480,000


6.3


495,000


6.5


975,000


8,110,000


1994


690,000


8.5


460,000


5.7


1,150,000


8,800,000


1995


930,000


10.6


465,000


5.3


1,395,000


9,730,000


1996


820,000


8.4


410,000


4.8


1,290,000


10,550,000


1997


935,000


8.9


545,000


5.2


1,480,000


11,485,000


1998


960,000


8.4


520,000


4.5


1,480,000


12,445,000


1999


1,025,000


8.2


515,000


4.1


1,540,000


13,470,000


2000


1,405,000


10.4


525,000


3.9


1,930,000


14,875,000


2001


655,000


4.4


625,000


4.2


1,280,000


15,530,000


2002


1,030,000


6.6


710,000


4.6


1,740,000


16,560,000


2003


1,525,000


9.2


875,000


5.3


2,400,000


18,085,000


2004


1,880,000


10.4


1,080,000


6.0


2,960,000


19,965,000


2005


1,450,000


7.3


1,150,000


5.8


2,600,000


21,415,000


2006


1,920,000


9.0


1,180,000


5.5


3,100,000


23,335,000


2007


2,900,000


12.4


1,350,000


5.8


4,250,000


26,235,000


2008


1,900,000


7.2


1,350,000


5.1


3,250,000


28,135,000


2009


-1,050,000


3.7


1,500,000


5.3


450,000


27,085,000


Profile Projected


2010


550,000


2.0


1,450,000


5.4


2,000,000


27,635,000


2011


1,850,000


6.7


1,550,000


5.6


3,400,000


29,485,000


2012


2,700,000


9.2


1,600,000


5.4


4,300,000


32,185,000


2013


2,750,000


8.5


1,650,000


5.1


4,400,000


34,935,000


2014


2,700,000


7.7


1,800,000


5.2


4,500,000


37,635,000


2015


3,000,000


8.0


2,000,000


5.3


5,000,000


40,635,000


* = percentage of preceding end-year fleet size
Source: Containerisation International Analysis Market:
Container Leasing Market 2010






YEAR


World
Container
Traffic
(Million TEU)


Growth


End-Year
Fleet Size
(Million TEU)


Growth


Traffic/Fleet
Ratio


1990


28.7





6.375





4.50


1991


31.3


9,06%


6.905


8,31%


4.53


1992


34.1


8,95%


7.63


10,50%


4.47


1993


37.1


8,80%


8.11


6,29%


4.57


1994


41.9


12,94%


8.8


8,51%


4.76


1995


46


9,79%


9.73


10,57%


4.73


1996


49.1


6,74%


10.55


8,43%


4.65


1997


54


9,98%


11.485


8,86%


4.70


1998


56.3


4,26%


12.445


8,36%


4.52


1999


61.6


9,41%


13.47


8,24%


4.57


2000


68.3


10,88%


14.875


10,43%


4.59


2001


70.7


3,51%


15.53


4,40%


4.55


2002


78.9


11,60%


16.56


6,63%


4.76


2003


91.9


16,48%


18.085


9,21%


5.08


2004


105.3


14,58%


19.965


10,40%


5.27


2005


115.5


9,69%


21.415


7,26%


5.39


2006


127


9,96%


23.335


8,97%


5.44


2007


142.4


12,13%


26.235


12,43%


5.43


2008


148.9


4,56%


28.135


7,24%


5.29


2009


134.56


-9,63%


27.085


-3,73%


4.97


2010E


153


13,70%


27.635


2,03%


5.54


2011F


165.6


8,24%


29.485


6,69%


5.62


2012F


177.7


7,31%


32.185


9,16%


5.52


Source: World Traffic Container -
Drewry Annual Reports; End Year Fleet Size -
US Analysis Market: Container Leasing Market 2010
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