In the last few months of this year and in 2023 the growth of world trade will slow down. The probability of this happening is reported by the Goods Trade Barometer, the World Trade Organization (WTO) indicator for assessing the global trade in goods, the current reading of which marks 96.2, which is less than that of the basis of 100, which indicates growth in line with medium-term trends, and lower than the previous reading that was 100.

The World Trade Organization found that the worsening of the barometer was consistent with the WTO forecast of October 5, which predicted the volume of trade in goods by 3.5% percent in 2022 and 1.0% percent in the year. 2023 due to several related shocks, including the war in Ukraine, high energy prices and the deterioration of major economies. The WTO specified that in the second quarter of this year, global freight traffic increased 4.7% percent year-on-year after a 4.8% percent growth in the previous quarter and, in order for the WTO's forecast to be realized, in the second half of 2022 world trade growth is expected to stand on average around 2.4%.

Relative to the recent divergence in 2021 and 2022 between the readings of the barometer index and the trend in the volume of trade in goods, highlighted in the chart representing the two trends, the WTO specified that it could be explained by the delay in the shipment of goods caused by supply chain disruptions that occurred following the Covid-19 pandemic.

The World Trade Organization explained that at the last reading of the Goods Trade Barometer, which indicates "rain", it came due to the worsening of individual indices representing export orders (91, 7), air transport (93, 3) and the electronic components (91, 0). Containerized transport indexes (99, 3) and raw materials (97, 6) were found to be slightly below trend and lost momentum. The only exception is the automotive products index (103, 8), which rose above trend following higher vehicle sales in the USA and increased exports from Japan.