Niels Rasmussen, Chief Analyst for Shipping of the international maritime association Bimco, does not mention explicitly to upcoming problems related to overcapacity of the fleet, but presenting today an examination of recent developments new container ship orders and dismantling of This type implies that this risk is absolutely real. Rasmussen pointed out that in the first seven months of 2023 the Deliveries of new container carriers reached a new record of 1,2 million teu of hold capacity placed on the market, exceeding about 200 thousand teu the previous record, while Ship recycling activity remained low. Since last January, this has led to an increase in capacity of the world fleet pairs to +4.3%. Relatively to new orders for the construction of ships, Rasmussen has noted that if the conclusion of these contracts is slowed down compared to the record set in 2021, however since the beginning of 2023 continued to be twice as high as decade of 2010. The BIMCO analyst found that the 1.3 million teu of contracts concluded since the beginning of this year maintained a high level of the order backlog, which is only 3 thousand teu lower than the record of 7.6 million teu reached in March 2023.

Rasmussen noted that the order book is so much substantial that it is expected that deliveries of container ships will exceed the previous annual record of 1,7 million teu for Three consecutive years, with the delivery - based on the current Forecasts - of a total of 2,4, 2,9 and 1,9 million teu of new capacity in 2023, 2024 and 2025 respectively.

Rasmussen specified that if it is expected in the coming years also an increase in ship dismantling, with more units energy efficient that will replace container ship now in service, however it is expected that between the beginning of 2023 and the beginning of 2025 fleet capacity It will grow again by about 4,5 million TEU, increasing the Total fleet capacity of almost +18%.

Increase in the capacity of ships in service - has observed the analyst of the Bimco, which comes at a time when the Economic growth in many key regions is declining, with growth prospects for the world economy in the coming years are shrinking.

Based on maritime traffic statistics containerized, Rasmussen explained that in the first half of This year total volumes decreased by -4.3% year-on-year, with an increase of only +0.2% compared to the first half of the pre-pandemic year of 2019. With reference only to the routes headhaul and regional traffic - it has specified - the data is -4.9% lower than in the first half of 2022 but higher +3.1% compared to the first half of 2019. Fortunately- noted Rasmussen - in the second quarter of 2023 travel Headhaul and regional volumes have improved, as volumes are decreased of -2,0% on an annual basis and are in turn out in increase of the +5.3% compared to the second quarter of 2019, while Compared to this last year, the capacity of the fleet is increased by +17%.

"The future growth of the offer - concluded the analyst del Bimco - could be mitigated by speed of Reduced navigation, but further capacity growth of the fleet of about 15% in the next year and a half shows that Supply-side growth will remain a challenge for shipowners and operators'.