The shipping sector is still far from the achieve the climate target of having at least 5-10% of the Fuel used in international maritime transport from scalable sources with zero emissions by 2030. The highlights the fourth annual report "Progress towards Shipping's 2030 Breakthrough - 2025 Edition", published today and implemented by the UCL Energy Institute, the Getting to Zero Coalition of the Global Maritime Forum's and Climate High-Level Champions, which notes that, despite technological advances weak signals on the demand side and stagnation risk delaying the transition and having a negative impact on future supply.

Referring to the agreement of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) on the Net Zero Framework reached in April ( of the 11th April 2025), the report notes that the crucial details of the regulatory framework for the decarbonisation of shipping, including the incentives that the IMO intends to program to support the first operators that will use scalable zero-emission fuels, are subject to further negotiations before the entry into force of the framework in 2027 and that these negotiations, as well as the time necessary for the sector to understand the implications and react, determine if there is still a realistic path to use zero- or nearly zero-emission fuels that represent from the 5% to 10% of total fuels used by maritime transport by 2030.

The document explains that, in order for this objective to be To be achieved, action is needed on three fronts: support a robust IMO incentive mechanism that ensure clear priority for zero-scale fuels Emissions; raise awareness of the growing risks to which ships that do not use these fuels are on display, both as far as it concerns individual shipowners and the industry as a whole; help national actors and sub-global policies to bridge the gaps gaps that the IMO's Net Zero Framework may not address.

Jesse Fahnestock, Director of Decarbonization at Global Maritime Forum, noted that if the agreement on the Net Zero Framework was an important milestone in the multilateral diplomacy, however, we are not yet witnessing the level of momentum that the industry needs and noted that if the IMO were to develop guidelines providing incentives for First operators to adopt scalable, zero-emission fuels emissions, would contribute significantly to the alignment of demand, supply and financing and the achievement of the objectives of 2030.

The report notes that, however, the trend in demand of the sector paints a less optimistic picture. A substantial part of the ships ordered and in delivery - he explains - are not suitable for the use of scalable, zero-emission fuels, which the pressure on retrofitting and capacity of construction sites, increasing the risk of tangible fixed assets. In particular, the current projections indicate that only about a third of the demand needed for Achieving the 5% target will be achieved by 2030, unless the industry increases orders for ships eligible for Scalable zero-emission fuels. This deficiency amounts to approximately nine million tonnes of fuel oil equivalent, i.e. 400 large container ships capable of operating with Scalable zero-emission fuels.

The document specifies that if the 5% target is not achieved could jeopardise the entire objective of net zero emissions from the shipping sector by 2050, and stresses that, as global maritime transport is responsible for of about 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions, more than those issued by Germany, is therefore a crucial sector to be decarbonize. It also points out that, given that global trade is expected to quadruple by 2050, with no action taken Urgently, emissions will skyrocket.