The entry into force of the new ETS obligations, the emissions trading system of the European Union, will weigh on maritime and road transport and on industry, but in all areas of LNG and bioLNG scenarios will remain the most competitive solutions. This is highlighted by a study by Bip Consulting commissioned by Assogasliquidi-Federchimica, which assesses long-term and impact on the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of EU Emission Trading System (ETS 1 and ETS2) of the various energy commodities. The study was presented today in Rome as part of the conference entitled "The application of the ETS in the LNG and bioLNG sector. Impact analysis and scenario long-term penetration in jobs in the of road transport, shipping and industry" which is organized by the association.

The study notes that ETS and ETS2 change the rules, with costs up by about 50% for shipping and just under 10% for heavy road transport. In particular, according to the projections, the expected increase in the price of ETS allowances and the introduction of ETS2 will entail additional costs between €0.7 billion and €1.4 billion per year for the sector 4-15 billion euros for heavy road transport in Italy by 2030. In the shipping sector, the ETS can increase TCO by up to +50%, with a potentially double when combined with the European FuelEU Maritime regulation. In In this scenario, LNG and bioLNG emerge as the most competitive compared to traditional fuels.

As regards heavy road transport, ETS2 leads to a TCO increase of less than 10%, enough to make attractive biogenic solutions. Finally, compared to the off-grid industry, ETS2 can increase TCO by 30-40%, confirming LNG and bioLNG as cost-effective alternatives.

Long-term scenarios point to significant growth of the liquefied natural gas market, driven by the shipping sector where the technological alternatives for decarbonisation are Limited. The current demand (about 200 kton/year) could triple by 2030 and reach over 2,000 kton/year by 2050, driven by the naval sector (with over 1,200 kton/year) and the heavy road transport sector (over 750 kton/year).

"These scenarios - said Costantino Amadei, president of the LNG Group of Assogasliquidi-Federchimica - ci comfort in the investment choices that companies are making carrying out but are achievable only on condition that they are accompanied by some important enabling policy measures, starting from the urgent revision of the European Regulation on CO2 emissions from heavy-duty vehicles, which recognises the value of Biofuels through the introduction of carbon correction factor. It is also essential to introduce already in the 2026 Budget measures, currently being discussed in Parliament, a structural reimbursement contribution for at least three years and operational from the first months of 2026 - for the purchase costs of LNG and bioLNG by road haulage companies. Well the provision contained in the 2026 Budget bill of a extraordinary measure operational from 2027 with resources of 590 million for the renewal of the vehicle fleet, but in the implementation it is necessary that the distribution of funds provides for the distribution of funds important bonuses for the purchase of vehicles powered by alternative fuels such as LNG and bioLNG".

"It must also be guaranteed - continued Amadei - the continuity of incentives for the production of biomethane/bioLNG, even beyond the PNRR, the possibility of retain the incentive even when the product is used in international shipping, as well as providing for the allocation of ETS auction revenues to sectors that they generated them to support decarbonization processes. At the same time, urgent clarifications are needed on the use of Guarantees of Origin for ETS purposes. Finally, it is essential to simplify and standardise administrative procedures for infrastructure and bunkering. Only in this way will we be able to grasp opportunities offered by LNG and bioLNG, and building a more sustainable energy future and competitive".

"LNG and bioLNG - underlined the president of Assogasliquidi-Federchimica, Matteo Cimenti, commenting on the results of the study - are confirmed as strategic vectors for the energy transition, capable of guaranteeing competitiveness and reduction of emissions in the most difficult to decarbonise, helping to reduce the impact burdensome for companies and consumers".