The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) confirms the arrest of the economic recovery registered in the major industrialized economies, where the decline in confidence of households and firms determines a negative impact on trade and jobs, while growth continues to be supported in most emerging economies, albeit at a slower pace.
"The growth - said the chief economist of the OECD, Pier Carlo Padoan, presenting the latest edition of the Economic Outlook prepared by the organization - turns out to be much slower than we thought three months ago and has increased the risk to incur in the near future in a phase of negative growth. "
The OECD predicts that in the second half of this year economic growth in the G7 economies, excluding Japan, will remain at an annualized rate of less than 1%.The debate on fiscal policy in the United States, the sovereign debt crisis in some countries of the euro area and the fact that governments have fewer options to boost growth - said the organization - helping to decrease the business confidence and consumer was also underestimated the impact of the deleveraging of the banks as a result of regulatory changes.
The OECD noted that the improvement in the labor market in the past are now fading, that employment prospects are shrinking and that there is a greater risk that the high rate of unemployment may become endemic. Vice versa - he said the organization - a number of OECD countries are taking serious steps to reform the tax structure and that should increase confidence. "The imperative of politics - said Padoan - is to restore confidence" and to do so - said the OECD - is essential that countries take credible steps to reduce the debt at the same time, however, the consolidation plans medium-term must be accompanied by structural reforms that aim at growth.
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