The Goods Trade Barometer shows weak upward momentum world trade. The barometer is an index forecast of the trend in global trade, which is has been defined by the World Trade Organization (WTO) and is composed of indicators related to different components, including new export orders, air freight, container port traffic, the automotive and automotive sectors electronic components and agricultural-forestry products. When the barometer needle is on 100 it means that the growth world trade is in line with the medium-growth trend term, while higher or lower values indicate growth above or below this trend.

Today's reading of the Goods Trade Barometer, which indicators of the third quarter of 2023, is 100.6, so higher, but only slightly, than the trading volume index This suggests that the trade in goods is expected to continue to gradually recover in the early months of 2024, with possible gains that, however, could be easily thwarted by regional conflicts and tensions Geopolitical.

In the third quarter of 2023, the worldwide traffic volume of Freight decreased by -0.4% compared to the previous quarter and -2.5% compared to the same period in 2022. The WTO has specified that the significant decrease compared to the previous year was mainly due to strong growth in the first three quarters of 2022. From January to October, on the other hand, the trade in goods has been mostly stable, with a volume that was almost unchanged in the third quarter compared to the beginning of the year and up only +3.2% over the of two years. The WTO has pointed out that these developments are worse compared to the most recent forecasts made by the 5 October and which predicted growth of +0,8%.

Among the indicators that determine the "pressure of the barometric report on world trade, the latest reading points out that the indicators of export orders (101.7) and air cargo (102.3) are increasing and are slightly above the trend, while the indicators container shipping (98.6) and trade in Commodities (99.1) remain slightly below trend. In addition, the indicator of car production and sales (106.3) remains well above trend, although it has recently lost momentum. While the strong rebound in component trade recorded by the previous barometer reading, now scaled down (95.6).

However, the World Trade Organization believes that trade will grow during 2024 as it is A recovery from the growth trend of less than 2023 average, although the degree of uncertainty continues to be due to the prevalence of downside risks.