Independent journal on economy and transport policy
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The WTO is concerned that the rebound in world trade forecast for 2021 may not occur
The trend, rather than V, could follow the L. Strongly depressed form of the containerized shipping index
August 19, 2020
The WTO has announced that the current reading of the barometer is 84.5, or 15.5 percentage points below the value of 100 and 18.6 points lower than a year ago. The World Trade Organization has specified that this is the most low not recorded since the indicator was adopted 2016 and also the lowest since 2007 and 2007 equal to the lowest point of the financial crisis 2008-2009. will not be confirmed until the end of this year when they are official data on the volume of trade in the April-June period.
By reporting surveys for specific sectors, the WTO pointed out that automotive and automotive product indices 71.8 and 76.5 respectively, are by far the most the worst on record since 2007. Strongly depressed also containerized shipping index (86.9). Some recovery signals were detected for orders (88.4), while they showed good resilience electronic components (92.8) and raw materials indices (92.5).
The WTO also announced that statistics for June 2020 indicate a fall of -14% in the volume of trade worldwide goods between the first and second quarters of this year, estimates that -- along with the reading of the Goods Trade Barometer - suggests that in 2020 world trade is evolving in line with the less pessimistic of the two scenarios outlined WTO in forecasts made in April that estimated that this year the volume of trade would contract 13% compared to 2019. However, the WTO warned that, as already reported by its economists in June, the heavy economic balance sheet of the Covid-19 pandemic suggests that forecasts that there could be a strong rebound in world trade following a V-shaped trend might prove overly optimistic and, given that there is still absolute uncertainty about economic and trade policies and how the health crisis will evolve, a more realistic indicates that the trend could have an L-shaped level of global trade, which would therefore be well above below the trajectory before the pandemic.
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The WTO has announced that the current reading of the barometer is 84.5, or 15.5 percentage points below the value of 100 and 18.6 points lower than a year ago. The World Trade Organization has specified that this is the most low not recorded since the indicator was adopted 2016 and also the lowest since 2007 and 2007 equal to the lowest point of the financial crisis 2008-2009. will not be confirmed until the end of this year when they are official data on the volume of trade in the April-June period.
- Via Raffaele Paolucci 17r/19r - 16129 Genoa - ITALY
