Due to the repeated attacks on ships in the last few years, weeks in the southern Red Sea region, the volume of containerized cargo transported on the route that crosses it is collapsed by more than half and is currently almost the 70% lower than the normally expected volume. This is underlined by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the German research institute on globalisation, specifying that the "Kiel Trade Indicator", the index developed by the institute that estimates the import and export intensity of 75 nations, the EU and world trade, points out that last December, the import-export of Germany and the EU with East Asia, it has in some cases been considerably lower than the previous month, decrease attributable to probably attacks on container ships in the Sea Red.

The Kiel Institute has announced that in December 2023, the World trade prices fell by -1.3% on a quarterly basis compared to the previous month, with indicators for the Union which are negative for both exports (-2.0%) and imports (-3.1%). Germany's foreign trade has also followed the weakening trend of recent months, with the exports (-2.0%) and imports (-1.8%) declined on a year-on-year basis monthly.

«The diversion of ships around the Cape of Buona Hope in Africa Caused by Red Sea Attacks - ha noted Julian Hinz, director of the Trade Policy Research Center and new head of the Kiel Trade Indicator - means that the weather Necessary to transport goods from production centers to European consumers is significantly extended to 20 days. This is also reflected in declining trade data for Germany and the EU, as the goods transported are now still at sea and have not yet been unloaded in ports such as provided'.

According to the Kiel Institute, since the middle of last month the volume of container traffic transiting the Red Sea is has decreased dramatically and currently stands at only 200,000 TEUs per day compared to around 500 thousand TEUs in November 2023, and this - the institute specified - means that the current volume is -66% lower than expected on a volume basis transited in the years 2017 to 2019.

The German institute's report points out that, however, if the Containerized traffic in the Red Sea has collapsed, it is expected but a minimal negative impact on world trade, despite the significant increase in the required browsing time circumnavigating Africa and the consequent significant increase in the number of sea freight rates, with a fee for transporting a container from 40 feet between China and Northern Europe which is currently even to more than $4,000 compared to about $1,500 in the last November, but the price is still very high. away from the peaks recorded during the Covid-19 pandemic when transporting a 40' container on this route cost up to to $14,000.

"Despite the significant increase in transport costs - Hinz pointed out - no obvious consequences are therefore expected on the consumer prices in Europe, especially as the share of consumer prices in Europe freight costs on the value of goods for expensive items, such as Consumer electronics, it's only a few thousandths." In addition, Hinz specified that the current situation is not comparable to that during the coronavirus pandemic or to that of the blockade of maritime traffic in the canal for six days in March 2021 caused by the stranding of the container ship Ever Given: at that time - he explained - "the blockades led to a drastic reduction in the supply of goods and demand in Europe exploded at the same time', while now - noted - "Apart from slightly longer delivery times, for products from the Far East and the increase in transport costs, at which the network of ships container ships should adapt quickly, there are no Expect negative consequences for global trade."