The increase of the containerized rail shipments between China and Europe is due essentially to the Chinese incentives



In the period the 2010-2017 annual volume of rail shipments of container from China to the European Union has grown from 5.600 teu in the 2010 almost 164,000 TEU last year and that from the EU to China is increased by 1.300 teu to beyond 98.000 teu in 2017. An important increase that but will hard endure ulterior an acceleration reaching already in a 2020 volume of China-EU-China traffic pairs to 500.000 teu. It previews an analysis of the Centre for Integration Studies of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), institution international financial institution that it has between the associate States Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kirghizistan, Russia and Tajikistan.

The specific relationship that the increment is generated mainly by the Chinese program Silk Road Economic Belt, that it is the development plan of the connections via earth in the within of the strategic initiative of the "New via of the started silk" from the government of Beijing. The precise document that if in the 2017 containerized railway traffic of transit on the China-Europe-China axis it is piled altogether to 262.000 teu, that is 1,8 times more than in 2016, this increase is attributable essentially to the subsidies in order to promote the introduced rail shipments from the Chinese authorities. In particular - the analysis explains - the zero setting of the railway rates for the transport of the container on the Chinese territory has induced the Chinese exporter to transfer quantitative of goods from the marine transport to that railway one.

The Centre for Integration Studies esteem that in the 2016 subsidies to the rail shipment goods granted by the Chinese provinces is piled to about 88 million dollars, appraisal that is based on the foundation that the medium incentive for the transport of a container from 40 feet (feu) has been pairs to 2.500 dollars, on a transport rate pairs altogether to 4.800-6.000 dollars, and that sent subsidized the total amount of container from the central provinces of China has been pairs to about 35.000 units. The precise relationship moreover that the value total of the subsidies for the transport of container of 40 feet is equivalent to about the 0,3-0,4% of the total value of transported cargos.

The relationship evidences less that the perspectives of a future increase of the flows of containerized railway traffic depend therefore from the decision of the Chinese provinces to maintain or (or also than to increase) the incentives in order to promote these shipments.

Introducing the relationship the director of the Center for Integration Studies, Evgeny Vinokurov, has emphasized that the railway shipments offer another series of advantages not directly tied to the costs, as - it has explained - they afford a reduction of the times of transport, guarantee the regularity of the transport and the delivery door-to-door. "The punctuality of the railway timetables - it has found Vinokurov specifying that 99.7% of the trains container between China and Europe respect the programmed timetables - and the times of transport and delivery door-to-door that they are about three inferior times regarding shipments for marine way represents the advantages of the rail shipment. Such potential one, legacy to the rates - it has still observed Vinokurov - still has not directly not beeed exhausted: the shipment number container weeklies magazine could be tripled within 2020, going up to about 100 to the week". In particular, the Center for Integration Studies considers that, remaining unchanged the current rate of about 5.500 dollars (included the incentives) for the transport of a container from 40 ', the volume of containerized trade between China and Europe can therefore double going up to 500.000 teu in 2020.

Beyond 2020, instead - according to the Center for Integration Studies - the level of the rates will not turn out determining and, even if the rates are maintained to the level precedence, an attenuation of the increase of the flow of the containerized rail shipments is attended. For the Center studies on integration of the EDB, prerequirement for an ulterior increase more lowlands, investments for the elimination of the necks of bottle in infrastructures of transport and the logistics with the construction of ulterior lines railroads, with the electrification of the railway drafts, with the potenziamento and modernization of the fleets of locomotives, with the use of special rotabile material and with the construction of centers of transport and logistics to border crossings, and the international coordination of the policies of the transports at the level of "Great Eurasia" include rates.

For the Center for Integration Studies, in an optimistic scene the annual volume of containerized railway traffic on the China-Europe-China axis could grow over the long term until two million teu, even if permarrebbe current difference (2:1) between the flows of East-West traffic (1,3 million teu) and those in the opposite direction.

Emphasizing that the Chinese initiative Silk Road Economic Belt is of strategic importance for the countries of the Eurasiatic Economic Union, the relationship concludes evidencing that in such scene the main topics to face are those of the solution of the problems of logistics and transport infrastructures, of the development of the containerizzazione in the economies and the unification of the technical regulations, this in order to allow the increase of the interregional traffic of the goods, the improvement of the connections between the E regions the logistic position of the regions without outlet on the sea, that is the Ural mountains, Siberia and entire central Asia. In particular, second the analysis, one of the obstacles to remove are that of the insufficient ability to the Polish railroads and border crossings between Poland and Belarus, issue that the Center for Integration Studies will face in its next relationship on weakness and the necks of bottle of infrastructures in 15 the containerized transport that will be published next May.