Nicolini (Confetra): "we are to the dawn of a season of deep regression of the economic cycle"



"We are to the dawn of a season of deep regression of the economic cycle". This forecast, formulated today by Guido Nicolini, president of the Confetra - General Confederation Italiana of the Transports and the Logistics, is not based on feelings, but - unfortunately - on data and information found from Centro Studi of the organization that uses them in order periodically to compile the Conjunctural Note that illustrates the course of the market of the Italian transport goods.

The edition of relative the Conjunctural Note to the first semester of this year is introduced today by Confetra that it has evidenced as the last data show "in all evidence the weakness of the industrial cycle, that it above all reflects lasting of the commercial tensions to international level and the slow down of the economic activity in China".

"The Italian industrial production, than until last year, in spite of the strong variability, had remained in average on positive values - the document explains - inverts the sign and it is attested to the -0,8% addressing towards the inactivity cargo handling. The activity - the Conjunctural Note specifies - is supported by the interchange with foreign country that, in spite of the bending of the international commerce, has seen in the semester a resumption of the imports and an estate of the exports above all in European extra within. The European member suffers of the weakness of the industrial cycle that has invested all the main economies of the area euro".

Relatively to the road traffic, the publication explains that in the first semester of this year this modality of transport has made to record an increment of +2.3% online with the Aiscat data of handling of the heavy vehicles in the freeways, while international one to loaded suit has marked a slow down that has been stopped to the -0,6% as evidenced from the same bending of the transits in alpine passes (+1.1%, but against +3.3% of the year precedence).

The evidenced slow down has invested also the corrieristico branch that has shown an increase of +1.8% in the national deliveries against a +2.5% of the year precedence and an increase of +3.5% in those international ones against a +4.0% of 2018.

Meaningful the resumption of rail shipment (+5.0% train-km) that it is opposed to the fall of that airplane (- 5.8% in tons) whose bending was begun in the slid survey (- 0.4%).

In the first six months of 2019 it is continued instead the worsening of the transport by sea. The only section that has maintained the sign positive is that containerized one of final destination (+4.3%, but against +4.8% of the year precedence, while the traffic ro-ro (- 4.6%, but - specific is passed in land negative the Note - in the survey of the data aggregate it could weigh the lack of the data of Livorno, Messina and Piombino, ports with meaningful traffics). Moreover the contraction of liquid bulk (- 7.6%) and of the solid bulk (- 2.3%) and continued the dramatic regression of the traffic of transhipment (- 6.5%), moreover with result of Gioia Tauro (- 2.2% has not been arrested) less negative regarding the other ports.

Relatively to the turnover, the road haulage has marked a tendency online with that of the traffic, while the international shipments have shown an improvement of the margins in the street and marine modalities. Collapse of aerial turnover (- 7.6%).

The Conjunctural Note emphasizes that the emerged picture is reflected to the perfection in the expectations of the operators for the second half of the year of 2019. They diminish, in fact, is those who expect an increase (from 31.1% to 29%) are those which expects a decrease (from 12.2% to 8.7%), while the expectations of stability reach 62.3%, sign of spreading of the uncertainty climate and inactivity that the entrepreneurial world of the field is characterizing.

"Our surveys - Guido Nicolini has commented - in the belief confirm, moreover empirically already overly clear our operators to us, that we are to the dawn of a season of deep regression of the economic cycle. The logistic field, for as for own operating articulate inside much and rich one of pluralità, could not suffer in tinning its with of an industrial production and a general condition of uncertainty of the total commerce. But it is clearly to that the international competition happens between States and continents: war of the custom offices, via of the Silk, Brexit - it has observed Nicolini - is there to remember them it every day. Our enterprises - it has concluded the president of Confetra - need a Country, behind, that it finally decides to take care seriously and structurally of logistics".