Independent journal on economy and transport policy
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In biennium 2014-2015 a moderated rise of the rate of growth of the world-wide commerce is attended
This year is previewed a +4.7% and the next year a +5.3%
April 14, 2014
In the biennium the 2014-2015 rate of growth of the world-wide commerce will increase, but to an inferior rhythm regarding the average of recorded +5.3% in last the 20 years. The forecast is formulated by the World Trade Organization, than for 2014 it attends an increase of + 4.7%, more of the double quantity therefore of the increase of 2.1% last year (preliminary and slightly inferior esteem to the more recent forecasts of + 2.5% indicated by the WTO) and last September advanced also to the medium increase of last the two years that has been of +2.2%.
The WTO has found that, for according to consecutive year, in the 2013 world-wide commerce it has grown more or less to the same rhythm of the World gdp rather than two times faster so as happen normally. This year - in which an increase of +3.0% of the World gdp is previewed - is attended a medium increase of +3.6% of the commerce of the developed nations and an increase of +6.4% of that of the nations developing and CSI.
In 2015 an ulterior accentuation of the increase of the world-wide commerce with a total +5.3% (for the World gdp is attended is estimated a +3.1%), with a +4.3% of the commerce of the nations developed and a +6.8% of that of the nations developing.
The WTO has found that in the 2013 slowness of the rhythm of the increase of the commerce it is determined by a combination of flat question of imports in developed economies (+0.2%) and of a moderated increase of the imports in economies developing (+4.4%), while on the front of the exports, the economies are developed are developing have recorded only light increments (+ 1.5% for the developed economies, + 3.3% for the economies developing).
"In the past couple of years - the general manager of the WTO, Roberto Azevêdo has explained - the increase of the commerce has been slow. In perspective, if the forecasts of the Gross Domestic Product one are confirmed truthful, for the 2014 we expect a resumption on wide scale, but modest, and an ulterior consolidation of the increase in 2015. It is clearly that the commerce is proceeding towards an improvement since the world-wide economy improves, but knows that to only attend an increase automatic rifle of the exchanges he will not be sufficient for the members of the WTO". "We - he has added - can support actively the increase of the commerce dawning the rules and establishing the new commercial agreements. The agreement last December to Bali of is an example".
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