The WTO notes a rebound in world trade in services

The WTO explains that, after the sharp decline marked during the global Covid-19 pandemic, currently the world trade in services seems to be heading towards a phase of recovery, so much so that that the barometer rose decidedly towards the "beautiful time." The last reading of the index, in fact, is of 104.7%, which is the highest ever recorded in a series of readings dating back to 2000 and well above the value of base of 100 that denoted growth in line with the recent trend. The last reading, moreover, is also considerably above of the low of 91.2 marked in March 2020 when they were generally taken the most incisive measures to contain the Pandemic. The World Trade Organization specifies, however, that the continued weakening of several sectors and the uneven distribution of Covid-19 vaccines raise doubts on the duration of this recovery.

The WTO specifies that the consistency of the rebound suggests that growth in world trade in services, after touching the in the second quarter of last year and recorded a modest increase in the following quarter, suffered acceleration in the fourth quarter of 2020, a momentum that, however, - notes the organization - may not continue in the first quarter of 2021, given that since the beginning of the year the lockdown in response to the second wave of the pandemic continue to growth and employment in the major economies.

In particular, the WTO explains that the impact of the second wave is reflected in the barometer component indices: weakness air transport (81.0) and the decline in air transport services information and communication technology (93.7). The flight industry international passenger aircraft, which probably at least in the second quarter will continue to be weak - notes the WTO - could see a partial recovery in the third quarter if the governments will be able to vaccinate a large number of people; However the spread of new variants could lead to new jokes arrest warrants. The WTO also notes that the fall in the information and communication technology could also turn out to be temporary, since it seems to have been determined by stricter lockdowns in the United States that have weighed on some IT services, while telecommunications services have remained stable. In contrast, other component indices are all increased above the trend, including the index of responsible for global service purchases (105.3), maritime transport of containers (104.3) and construction (106.3). The Financial Services Index (119.9) showed a strong performance particularly positive, reflecting an increase in transactions international financial institutions.

In concluding the WTO, it points out that, unlike the barometer notes the state of health of world trade, the fluctuations in the barometer of trade in services tend to coincide with actual trade flow movements rather than anticipating them.