Independent journal on economy and transport policy
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UNCTAD estimates that the value of world trade fell by -27% in the second quarter
For the whole of 2020, a contraction of about -20% is expected
June 11, 2020
UNCTAD predicts that if this state of uncertainty on the evolution of the global economy will persist, throughout the By 2020, the decline in the value of world trade will be -20% or so, in line with the World Trade Organization's estimate (WTO) which expects a reduction in the value of between -13% and -32% and compared to a forecast of a fall of -10/16% of the EU's 27-year-old economies European Commission.
The analysis of the development of world trade today's note from UNCTAD highlights that the latest data indicate a further deterioration in the scenario in the months April and May. Worsening - specifies the analysis - that, with The exception of the first two months of this year, sees the economy of China perform significantly better than the other global economies, with exports growing by 3%. However, UNCTAD said that however, could be short-lived because in May the Chinese imports and exports fell by about -8%.
In addition, the analysis shows that trade inter-regional countries appear to have fallen less in the nations of Asia Pacific, while intra-regional trade European Union marked a contraction rate similar to world trade and intra-regional trade in the United States much more pronounced decline.
The analysis also notes that the impact of the pandemic economy was more relevant in some sectors compared to others. In particular, in the first quarter of This year, the textile and clothing sector showed a reduction of almost -12%, while those of the machines office and automotive totals a contraction of -8% About. The value of trade in the agri-food sector on the other hand, it increased by about 2%. The report specifies that Preliminary data for April point to further declines in the majority of sectors and a reduction in the value of trade particularly consistent in the energy and product sectors 40% and -50% respectively. Cali significant results were also recorded in the product segment chemicals, machinery and machinery tools with push-ups of more than -10%. In April, however, office machines have posted a rise mainly thanks to Chinese exports. Finally, the analysis notes that the agri-food products is the one that showed a trend less volatile.
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UNCTAD predicts that if this state of uncertainty on the evolution of the global economy will persist, throughout the By 2020, the decline in the value of world trade will be -20% or so, in line with the World Trade Organization's estimate (WTO) which expects a reduction in the value of between -13% and -32% and compared to a forecast of a fall of -10/16% of the EU's 27-year-old economies European Commission.
- Via Raffaele Paolucci 17r/19r - 16129 Genoa - ITALY
