Independent journal on economy and transport policy
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The WTO warns that the rebound in world trade may have already run out
Several indicators suggest that the peak may have already been reached
February 19, 2021
The WTO also warns that the current barometer reading may not fully highlight the resurgence of the pandemic with the appearance of new variants of the virus, an evolution that - underlines the World Trade Organization - in the first quarter of this year will undoubtedly weigh on trade.
Illustrating the status of some primary indices, the WTO explains that export orders (103.4%) and products (99.8), which - the WTO points out - are among the main most reliable indicators of world trade - recently they both peaked and started losing Momentum. On the other hand, the indices of containerised transport (107.3) and air transport (99.4) are both still growing, although data collected more frequently suggest that the containerised transport has deceleration since the beginning of the of the year. In addition, the indices of electronic components (105.1) and raw materials (106.9) are well above the trend, but this may reflect a temporary accumulation of Stocks. According to the WTO, these trends, as a whole, suggest that the momentum of global trade growth could soon peak if this is not already been reached.
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The WTO also warns that the current barometer reading may not fully highlight the resurgence of the pandemic with the appearance of new variants of the virus, an evolution that - underlines the World Trade Organization - in the first quarter of this year will undoubtedly weigh on trade.
- Via Raffaele Paolucci 17r/19r - 16129 Genoa - ITALY
