In the first half of 2026, despite persistent geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties, trade of goods continued to strengthen. This was reported by the Goods Trade Barometer, the composite leading indicator on performance of global trade published today by the World Trade Organization (WTO). The latest survey of the index, relating to July 2026, stood at 102.0, slightly up from 101.7 recorded in June. The figure confirms that the volume of trade in goods remains above the medium-term trend and that the momentum of the commercial growth continued in the third quarter of the year.

According to the WTO, the negative impact of the conflict in the Middle East The East continues to be partly offset by strong demand for electronic components and other investment-related assets in artificial intelligence.

The WTO barometer index is calculated as an average weighted index of six sector indices, all of which are currently equal to or above the reference value of 100, with the exception of transport by sea of containers, which fell slightly below the threshold. Values above 100 indicate a growth in trade greater than trend, while values below 100 signal a slowdown.

The current reading indicates an index for electronic components of 104.9, which is the highest value among the components, testifying to the robust demand for related goods to the development of artificial intelligence. The order index which is considered to be high capacity predictive, is 103.5, strengthening, allowing a glimpse of a continuation of the growth of trade in goods in the coming months. The International Air Transport Index, provided by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), is 102.8, rising sharply above the trend. The commodity index agricultural sector is 102.6, also growing strongly, while that of automotive products is 101.5, in slight rise above the trend. Finally, the maritime transport index containerized, which is based on the volumes handled by the main international ports, is equal to 99.6 and is the only component below the threshold of 100, slightly down with respect to the trend. Overall, therefore, the indices sectoral statistics indicate that the growth of trade in goods has kept resilient.