It will take ten times more and twice and estimated time in 2018 for the reconstruction of the four public shipyards of the US Navy. It is the Conclusion of the new Government Accountability Office report (GAO), the oversight body of the US Congress, which estimates for the Shipyard Infrastructure Optimization Program (SIOP) a total cost of more than 200 billion dollars and a horizon of more than 50 years. The program was initiated by the Navy in 2018 to address the deteriorated condition of the four Norfolk, Portsmouth, Puget Sound and Pearl public shipyards Harbor, essential infrastructure for maintenance and the modernization of the nuclear units of the US Navy, in particular aircraft carriers and submarines. The project includes the construction and modernisation of dry docks and quays, the redevelopment of buildings and systems, the optimization of production flows and the modernization of equipment and of technologies.

In 2018, the U.S. Navy estimated that the SIOP would be It cost at least $21 billion and would have required at least $20 billion years, but already in 2023 the GAO had highlighted that the first estimate did not include a number of significant costs and that the plan relating to the Pearl Harbor shipyard had reached about 16 billion dollars, 162% more than estimated then available.

The reconstruction of the four shipyards, therefore, could become one of the longest and most expensive programs never faced by the US Navy. The increase in costs does not depend on a single cause. The GAO identifies a combination of factors that have progressively changed the size, cost and calendar of the program, which according to the latest forecast could end after 2080. One of the main ones concerns the discovery of Infrastructure conditions worse than initially planned. The four construction sites are in fact characterized by very old structures: some date back over 80 or even 120 years ago. The design and construction activities have brought out further needs for intervention, including works of safety, unscheduled repairs, plant upgrades and work on service networks.

The increase in raw material prices has also had a weight. The GAO recalls that, between January 2018 and July 2022, the prices of certain materials and products used to a significant extent in SIOP projects had increased significantly: +29% for the concrete, +116% for steel and +148% for diesel. To these factors add to the intrinsic complexity of the program. It is not simply a matter of building new infrastructures on free areas, but to transform four construction sites at the same time which must continue to perform their industrial function. A change in the design or timing of a work can therefore have consequences on other interventions and on the same site operation.

The size of the program is such that the US Navy has decided to divide its implementation into three major time blocks. The first, indicatively scheduled between 2026 and 2042, includes interventions with greater design maturity, including new dry docks, docks and some production facilities. The second is expected to develop approximately between 2038 and 2038. 2079 and include the remaining production facilities and related enabling interventions. The third, starting indicatively from 2074, concerns logistics infrastructures, specialized workshops, administrative structures and other capacities still to be develop.

The picture, moreover, may not be complete, being partial transparency of the information provided to Congress. The US Navy, in fact, already transmits reports, communications and briefing on different aspects of the SIOP, but there is no requirement to produce a single, standardised framework for tracking over time total costs, expenses already incurred, times, progress and risks of the entire program. For the GAO, This is a significant gap. Without a vision The Congress could take decisions on funding and priorities with information incomplete, with a potential exposure of billions of dollars public resources.