"The multilateral trading system has generated enormous benefits over the past 80 years, helping to create an economy more integrated and resilient global economy. The data show that about 72% of world trade in goods still takes place according to the terms of the most-favoured-nation clause of the WTO, while trade cooperation promoted by the has supported economic growth, helped to reduce the between developing and advanced economies, and fostered peace among the members". This was underlined by the Director General of the World Trade Organization, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, presenting the "World Trade Report 2026", the WTO's flagship report that was published today and is titled "A Critical Juncture for the World Trading System".

Referring to the crucial moment evoked by the title of the report, Okonjo-Iweala noted that "the trade landscape has changed significantly, but - he specified - the founding logic of the system, according to which all economies benefit more from cooperation than from unilateral action, remains more relevant than ever. Currently, he specified, recalling that a reform process of the World Trade Organization - the members of the WTOs are actively engaged in reform, fully aware that maintaining the status quo is not an option viable. The multilateral trading system is already repaired and renovated in the past and I think it can be new".

The report published today highlights that a decisive reform of the multilateral trading system could increase the world gross domestic product of about +3%, equal to 3,000 billions of dollars, by 2050, while the lack of adaptation trade rules would risk reducing production global up to -10%.

The heart of the report consists of three scenarios elaborated by WTO economists for 2050, compared with a basic trajectory. According to economists, a scenario of enhanced cooperation world, in which WTO rules are strengthened through commitments wider market opening, new disciplines on digital trade and services, a more and a calibrated framework that balances commercial and commercial openness security needs, would lead to an increase in global GDP of +2.9% and world exports by +17.9% by 2050 with respect to the basic trajectory.

The other two scenarios describe an erosion of the rules multilateral trade: a "geo-fragmented world", in where trade cooperation is organised around blocks geopolitical blocs (a Western bloc, an Eastern bloc and a group of non-aligned economies), with a drop in global GDP of -5.1% and of exports by -18.6%, and a "FTA world", a world of free trade agreements in which cooperation is replaced by a network of bilateral agreements and and the WTO effectively ceases to play a role in the definition of trade policies, with a decline in global GDP -6.9% and exports by -26.9%.

The report highlights that the comparison between these scenarios provides an indication of both the costs of the WTO loss and of the potential benefits of deeper cooperation. The report estimates that the gap between multilateral cooperation and the erosion of WTO rules amounts to a opportunity cost of about 5-10% of real GDP global, depending on the scenario considered.

The report points out that in the Enhanced cooperation scenario world for the least developed countries, which today represent less of 1% of world trade, the potential gains would be particularly significant, with their GDP that could grow by +7.7%, thanks to the benefits deriving from the reduction of duties and of other commercial costs, a much higher percentage to that envisaged for middle-income economies (+3.1%) and for high-income economies (+2.5%). High-income economies, while benefiting proportionally less than the others, they would gain However, in absolute terms, about 1,700 billion dollars (to 2023 values), a result linked in particular to lower costs commercial in the service sector.

The report highlights Furthermore, in the fragmentation scenario, the costs do not would distribute evenly: smaller economies and would be particularly vulnerable, with losses of gross domestic product more than triple those of the high-income economies.

The report also dwells on the difficulties that today The multilateral trading system is facing, attributing many of them to the consequence of his own successes. The document highlights that in the last eighty years the system has helped reduce trade barriers, supported an almost 50-fold expansion of world trade and fostered the building a more open, integrated and sustainable global economy rules-based approach. Membership of the WTO has also been associated with an increase in exchanges between members, a greater resilience during economic crises and a promoting effect of peace through cooperation based on shared rules. However, these same developments - the report notes - have made international cooperation more complex.

The document identifies four main factors underlying of current tensions: changes in the distribution of power global economy, which in recent decades has shifted to towards lower- and middle-income economies, putting Under pressure Agreements negotiated in the 90s but opening up to the exchange opportunities, including between economies in developing countries; the growing importance of state interventions in the economy, such as industrial policies and subsidies, which raise issues of a level playing field not always solvable with existing disciplines and remedies; the transformation of the very nature of trade, driven by digitalization, artificial intelligence, value chains and environmental transition, which generates new types of spin-offs cross-border issues; the intensification of geopolitical tensions, which altered the perception of the balance between benefits economic interdependence and concerns related to the national security.

The report does not propose a precise model for WTO reform. but identifies areas where a adaptation of trade rules, in particular by adapting the rules-based cooperation to a more efficient global economy integrated, multipolar and diversified, while maintaining the openness, predictability and fairness that have guaranteed success in the last eighty years.