World trade held up better than expected in the first half of 2026, despite the shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East, with supply chains have adapted and with the boom in investments in intelligence which has given a strong boost to trade in goods. The underlines the latest "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics" published today by the World Trade Organization, which specifies that Not everything, however, held up in the same way: the services and Some regions have been more affected by the crisis.

The document explains that in the first six months of 2026 the volume of trade in goods grew by 3.5%, more than expected. Two factors contributed to the increase. The first is the adaptation of energy supplies and fertilizers. According to WTO estimates, exports of crude oil from the Middle East recorded a-24% and those of liquefied natural gas -47%. But the increase in shipments of other suppliers limited the global decline to around -6% for the crude oil and only -1% for LNG. The market also on fertilizers it has rebalanced. Then there was the boom artificial intelligence, with the demand for "enabling" goods AI, such as semiconductors and servers, which accounts for 47% of the growth in world trade in goods in the first half of the year. Trade in these products rose by +67% year-on-year, after +16% in 2024 and +31% in 2025. The report specifies that It is about values and not volumes: measured growth reflects hence in part the increase in prices and capacities product techniques. The estimates of the European Central Bank cited from the WTO indicate increases in the import prices of these goods around +10% in 2025 and +20/+30% in the first half of 2025 this year.

As for world trade in services, the document discloses which grew by +14% year-on-year in value in the first quarter and +10% in the second. It was slowed down by transport and tourism, sectors closely linked to the role of hub played by the Middle East East. In particular, in transport, the reorganization of the routes and the surge in freight rates have inflated the values much more of volumes. At the end of June, spot container freight rates from Asia were around $6,200-8,000 per feu to North America and 4,900-6,500 to Europe and the Mediterranean. Traffic in China grew by +5.9% in the first half of the year, while the exports and imports of transport services rose by +31% and +36%. In the Persian Gulf, traffic has shifted: the Emirati port of Jebel Ali lost about -60% in the half-year (-90% in the second quarter), while Sohar (+40%) and Salalah (+15%) in Oman and the southern container terminal in Jeddah, in Saudi Arabia (+79%).

On the uneven impact of the crisis on the different regions of the world, the WTO report explains that, with regard to trade in goods by volume, in the whole of 2026 Asia is expected to see the most dynamic exports (+9.9%), ahead of North America (+5.7%), Africa (+5.6%) and South America (+3.4%). This is compared to a Europe that is substantially (-0.1%) and a decline for the Community of States Self-employed (-3.9%) and especially for the Middle East (-17.2%). On the import front, Asia grew the most (+9.5%), Africa (+8.9%) and CIS (+8.8%), while North America (+1.4%) and Europe (+0.5%) advanced little and the Middle East collapsed (-15.4%). The However, the document points out that North American imports, in particular Down by -3.2% in the half-year, mainly due to early purchases before the US tariffs of 2025, they recovered in the second quarter (+5.3% y/y). This suggests a demand stronger underlying than the estimate of +1.4% for per year.

In services, Europe is expected to grow more than all in exports (+4.6%), ahead of Asia (+4.0%) and Africa (+3,1%). North America and CIS (+1.7% both) and South are weaker and Central America (+1.3%), while the Middle East is expected to decrease of -10.3%. Europe is expected to generate more than half growth in global services exports, offsetting the lower contribution from Asia, North America and the Middle East.

The report then devotes an analytical chapter to the exchange of goods enabling artificial intelligence. If until 2023 they were moving in line with the rest of the goods trade, from 2024 they have accelerated, bringing their share of world trade in goods from 7-8% in the period 2016-2023 to 14.8% in the first half of 2026. Yes This is a very concentrated phenomenon. In 2025, the ten largest operators accounted for about 85% of exports and 80% of imports. On the one hand, supply: East Asia excluded China is worth 40.4% of the export of these goods (compared to 10.8% of the the total of goods) and Southeast Asia 23.2%. On the other hand, Question: The United States, China and Hong Kong together absorb about half of imports, with the American share growing and the declining. In the second quarter of 2026, North America contributed 18.5 percentage points to the growth of +70% of imports. Europe is marginal: it accounts for 35.5% of total exports of goods but only 10.6% of that of goods enabling AI, despite hosting ASML, the only provider of Extreme ultraviolet lithographs for microchip production. Among European economies, only the Netherlands is among the ten largest operators. For the WTO, economies with a limited presence in the value chain, while growing, is not recovering for now with a few exceptions.

The report also presents the new forecasts for the entire 2026 and for the following year. For 2026, WTO economists have raised the forecast of growth in trade volume of goods at +3.9%, compared to +1.9% indicated in the base scenario of March. For 2027, the estimate rises to +4.1% (it was +2.6%). Trade of commercial services, on the other hand, follows the opposite direction: +3.3% in the 2026, down from +4.8% forecast in March, with a rebound to the +6.4% in 2027. Combining the two components, the volume of trade of goods and services is expected to grow by about +3.7% in 2014. 2026 and +4.7% in 2027, against a gross domestic product increase by +2.6% and +2.9%. Trade - specification The report - exceeds economic growth also because the AI-related investments are richer in imports than to other items of expenditure.

The document highlights that the forecasts remain exposed to significant risks. The first is the distance between the price of the crude oil and refined products, which erodes purchasing power of households. The report estimates that, compared to a shock to the crude oil alone, this gap subtracts from the growth of the imports 0.22 percentage points in Asia, 0.14 in North America and 0.06 in Europe. Brent, after peaking at $138 on April 8th, is back to around $100 and gas in Europe has exceeded $21 dollars per MMBtu, the highest level since 2022. The second is a slowdown or reversal of investment in AI, which would have a strong impact on trade due to the high content of import. The report also recalls the wealth effect: AI weighs heavily More and more on the capitalization of the stock market and a possible revaluation would affect families exposure through index funds. In addition, Inflation: forecasts for 2026 have been revised from +3.7% to +4.7%, while estimates for 2027 also depend on a timely resolution of the conflict in the Middle East.