Independent journal on economy and transport policy
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LOGISTICS
Santi (Federagenti): the exit from the Silk Road is good, but beware of the repercussions on the logistics network
For a country like Italy - he stressed - it is essential to control and not suffer the logistics chain
Roma
December 18, 2023
For Alessandro Santi, president of Federagenti, the federation
of Italian shipping agents, the decision to release
Italy from China's Silk Road has been "corrected
and timely", "but now," he warned, "it is
A public and private commitment is essential, also focused on
infrastructure issues and analysis of global supply chains
procurement, focusing resources on interventions
substantial and not losing sight of an economic and
However, there is a very high percentage of companies in the commercial sector.
depend for a significant share on strategic materials
made in China'.
Santi recalled that a very recent study presented by the
Bank of Italy in the November 2023 Occasional Paper series
highlights the significant dependence of the Italian economy on the
strategic materials of foreign origin and in particular from the
China: starting from the balance sheets of Italian companies, from the data
customs authorities and a survey conducted by the Bank of Italy on the
Italian companies most exposed to this problem out of 515
strategic products that determine levels of dependency
appreciable, it emerges that 15% of Italian companies, equal to
25% of the added value of production, are dependent on
these products; and how, in particular, 7% of the value added
of the manufacturing sector is critically dependent, i.e. with
a low level of substitutability with third-party suppliers
Developing countries. Among the companies in this critical situation of "not
substitutability of sources of supply', only
40% of them are looking for alternative solutions. In the study,
analyses the macro impact on the Italian economy of this possible
impact, identifying the most important Italian geographical areas
(in descending order Marche, Tuscany and the macro-region
Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia Romagna), the most important production sectors
vulnerable people (clothing, leather, textiles, electronics,
pharmaceuticals, also in descending order), but above all,
through the use of mathematical models, highlighting how
the impact of a possible 50% halt in Chinese supplies of
irreplaceable products can be estimated at 2% of GDP
(which means around €40 million, the value of
almost two financial manoeuvres 2024). There is a downside to the
medal represented by a value of general exports to the
China, which accounts for about 1% of GDP, i.e. about 20 million euros, is the largest part of the country.
million euros. This is a safer position than
Germany (130 million), England (55 million) and
France (40 million).
"With near or re-shoring phenomena often at a standstill
and in any case disappointing compared to the forecasts made in the period
"Today, for a country like Italy, it is
essential to control and not be subject to the supply chain, by implementing
economic policy actions, infrastructural enhancement
that are consistent with the objective of making the
the Italian system'.
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