Cina e Stati Uniti sostengono la crescita del commercio mondiale

La crescita del commercio mondiale, stimolata lo scorso anno da una progressione delle economie degli Stati Uniti e dell'Asia più accentuata del previsto, potrà proseguire nel 2004 - ha confermato oggi la World Trade Organization (WTO) - se l'economia mondiale continuerà a seguire l'attuale trend positivo.

Lo scorso anno - ha rilevato la WTO - una crescita del 2,5% della produzione ha consentito al commercio di crescere del 4,5% Nonostante la crescita sia stata più elevata rispetto a quanto previsto un anno fa dopo l'allarme per la diffusione della SARS e per l'aumento delle tensioni in Medio Oriente, la crescita del commercio e della produzione in termini reali è rimasta però al di sotto del livello medio di crescita registrato dal 1995.

Secondo gli economisti della WTO il prodotto interno lordo mondiale crescerà del 3,7% nel 2004 e quest'anno il commercio mondiale potrebbe aumentare del 7,5%. Queste previsioni - ha precisato l'organizzazione mondiale del commercio - potrebbero però essere ridimensionate a causa di un possibile rallentamento superiore alle attese della crescita delle importazioni negli USA e da una vacillante ripresa della domanda in Europa occidentale.

«Chiaramente - ha osservato il direttore generale della WTO, Supachai Panitchpakdi - il miglioramento della situazione economica negli Stati Uniti ed in Asia ha dato un importante impulso al commercio mondiale. Ma, se guardiamo a tutto il mondo, il ritmo di crescita del commercio rimane irregolare e permangono molte barriere al commercio globale. Una più ampia espansione del commercio potrebbe offrire sostegno allo sviluppo economico e alla creazione di posti di lavoro. Se questo potenziale vuole essere concretizzato devono essere risolte molte delle esistenti distorsioni del commercio e il miglior modo per farlo è di far sì che il programma di Doha per lo sviluppo abbia una conclusione positiva».

Il rapporto odierno della WTO sottolinea la vivacità dei commerci con l'Asia, in particolare con la Cina, delle importazioni negli Stati Uniti e il .

Lo scorso anno le esportazioni mondiali di merci sono aumentate del 16% a 7,3 bilioni di dollari e l'esportazione di servizi commerciali è crescita del 12% a 1,8 bilioni di dollari.

World exports of merchandise and commercial services, 1990-2003
(Source: WTO)

	Value	Annual percentage change
	2003	1990'2000	2001	2002	2003
Merchandise	7,274	6	'4	4	16
Commercial services	1,763	7	0	6	12

Growth in the value of merchandise trade by region, 1990-2003
(Billion dollars and percentage)
(Source: WTO)

	Exports				Imports
	Value	Annual percentage change			Value	Annual percentage change
	2003	1990'2000	2002	2003	2003		1990'2000	2002	2003

World	7,274	6	4	16	7,557		6	4	16

North America	996	7	'5	5	1,552		9	2	9
United States	724	7	'5	4	1,306		9	2	9

Latin America	377	9	0	9	366		12	'7	3
Mexico	165	15	1	3	179		15	0	1
MERCOSUR	106	6	1	19	69		12	'26	10
Other Latin America	106	6	'3	8	118		7	'4	3

Western Europe	3,141	4	6	17	3,173		4	5	18
European Union (15)	2,894	4	6	17	2,914		4	4	18
Extra trade	1,099	5	7	17	1,114		5	2	19
Intra trade	1,795	4	6	18	1,800		4	6	18

Transition economies	400	10	10	28	378		8	11	27
Central/Eastern Europe	191	10	15	29	225		12	11	27
Russian Federation	135	'	4	26	74		'	12	24

Africa	173	3	2	22	165		3	4	17
South Africa	36	2	2	23	38		5	4	30
Oil exporters ^a	80	4	'1	30	42		1	6	19
Other African countries	56	3	7	12	85		2	4	12

Middle East	290	7	1	16	188		5	3	9

Asia	1,897	8	8	17	1,734		8	6	19
Japan	472	5	3	13	383		5	'3	14
Developing Asia	1,338	11	10	19	1,244		9	9	20
China	438	15	22	35	413		15	21	40
Six East Asian traders ^b	686	9	6	14	615		8	3	12
India	55	9	14	11	70		8	12	23

Memorandum items:
Developing economies	2,178	9	6	17	1,963		8	4	15
LDCs	44	7	9	14	54		5	4	15

a Algeria, Angola, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria and Sudan.
b Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong China, Rep. of Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand.

Growth in the value of commercial services trade by region, 1990-2003
(Billion dollars and percentage)
(Source: WTO)

	Exports				Imports
	Value	Annual percentage change			Value	Annual percentage change
	2003	1990'2000	2002	2003	2003	1990'2000	2002	2003

World	1,763	7	6	12	1,743	6	5	12

North America	322	8	1	4	266	7	1	7
United States	282	8	1	4	218	8	2	6

Latin America	60	7	'4	6	67	7	'9	3
Mexico	12	7	'1	0	17	5	3	2
MERCOSUR	15	8	'11	12	20	9	'24	8
Other Latin America	33	7	'1	5	29	7	'2	0

Western Europe	895	5	10	17	839	5	8	16
European Union (15)	802	5	10	16	782	5	8	16

Transition economies	72	9	11	19	82	8	15	21
Central/Eastern Europe	40	12	5	21	38	11	11	28
Russian Federation	16	4	20	18	27	3	15	13

Africa	36	5	3	...	46	4	2	...

Middle East	33	9	'4	...	49	4	'1	...

Asia	345	9	8	6	394	8	4	5
Japan ^a	70	5	2	8	110	3	0	3
Developing Asia	249	11	9	5	258	12	5	5
China	45	18	20	...	54	24	18	...
Hong Kong, China	43	8	10	0	24	8	1	-5
Korea, Republic of	31	13	'4	15	39	13	8	10
Singapore	30	9	3	3	27	12	2	0
India	25	14	12	...	20	13	'1	...

Memorandum items:
Developing economies	377	9	5	6	419	9	2	6
LDCs	7	7	6	9	17	4	2	12

a Provisional Secretariat estimate for exports in 2003 is based on the methodology applied by the Bank of Japan up to 2002.

Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade, 2003
(Billion dollars and percentage)
(Source: WTO)

Rank	Exporters	Value	Share	Annual percentage change	Rank	Importers	Value	Share	Annual percentage change

1	Germany	748.4	10.0	22	1	United States	1,305.6	16.8	9
2	United States	724.0	9.7	4	2	Germany	601.7	7.7	23
3	Japan	471.9	6.3	13	3	China	412.8	5.3	40
4	China	438.4	5.9	35	4	France	388.4	5.0	18
5	France	384.7	5.1	16	5	United Kingdom	388.3	5.0	12
6	United Kingdom	303.9	4.1	8	6	Japan	383.0	4.9	14
7	Netherlands	293.4	3.9	20	7	Italy	289.0	3.7	17
8	Italy	290.2	3.9	14	8	Netherlands	261.1	3.4	19
9	Canada	272.1	3.6	8	9	Canada	245.6	3.2	8
10	Belgium	254.6	3.4	18	10	Belgium	234.3	3.0	18

11	Hong Kong, China	224.0	3.0	11	11	Hong Kong, China	232.6	3.0	12
	domestic exports	15.6	0.2	'15		retained imports ^a	24.2	0.3	'1
	re-exports	208.4	2.8	14	12	Spain	200.1	2.6	21
12	Korea, Republic of	194.3	2.6	20	13	Mexico	179.0	2.3	1
13	Mexico	165.3	2.2	3	14	Korea, Republic of	178.8	2.3	18
14	Spain	151.9	2.0	21	15	Singapore	127.9	1.6	10
15	Taipei, Chinese	150.6	2.0	12		retained imports ^a	63.5	0.8	9
16	Singapore	144.1	1.9	15	16	Taipei, Chinese	127.3	1.6	13
	domestic exports	79.7	1.1	19	17	Austria	97.7	1.3	25
	re-exports	64.4	0.9	10	18	Switzerland	96.3	1.2	15
17	Russian Federation	135.2	1.8	26	19	Australia	88.6	1.1	22
18	Sweden	100.9	1.3	24
19	Malaysia	100.7	1.3	8

20	Switzerland	100.6	1.3	14	20	Sweden	82.3	1.1	23
21	Austria	96.2	1.3	22	21	Malaysia	81.1	1.0	1
22	Ireland	92.7	1.2	5	22	Thailand	75.7	1.0	17
23	Saudi Arabia	88.5	1.2	23	23	Russian Federation	74.5	1.0	24
24	Thailand	80.3	1.1	17	24	India	69.7	0.9	23
25	Brazil	73.1	1.0	21	25	Turkey	67.7	0.9	31
26	Australia	70.4	0.9	8	26	Poland	66.9	0.9	21
27	Norway	68.1	0.9	14	27	Denmark	58.7	0.8	17
28	Denmark	67.9	0.9	18	28	Ireland	52.8	0.7	1
29	Indonesia	60.7	0.8	6	29	Czech Republic ^b	51.3	0.7	26
30	United Arab Emirates	58.1	0.8	17	30	Brazil	50.7	0.7	2

Total of above ^c		6,405	85.6	'	Total of above ^c		6,570	84.6	'
	World ^c	7,482	100.0	16		World c	7,765	100.0	16

a Retained imports are defined as imports less re-exports.
b Imports are valued f.o.b.
c Includes significant re-exports or imports for re-exports.

Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade (excluding intra-EU trade), 2003
(Billion dollars and percentage)
(Source: WTO)

Rank	Exporters	Value	Share	Annual percentage change	Rank	Importers	Value	Share	Annual percentage change

1	Extra-EU exports	1,099.2	19.3	17	1	United States	1,305.6	21.9	9
2	United States	724.0	12.7	4	2	Extra-EU imports	1,113.8	18.7	19
3	Japan	471.9	8.3	13	3	China	412.8	6.9	40
4	China	438.4	7.7	35	4	Japan	383.0	6.4	14
5	Canada	272.1	4.8	8	5	Canada	245.6	4.1	8
6	Hong Kong, China	224.0	3.9	11	6	Hong Kong, China	232.6	3.9	12
	domestic exports	15.6	0.3	'15		retained imports ^a	24.2	0.4	'1
	re-exports	208.4	3.7	14	7	Mexico	179.0	3.0	1
7	Korea, Republic of	194.3	3.4	20	8	Korea, Republic of	178.8	3.0	18
8	Mexico	165.3	2.9	3	9	Singapore	127.9	2.1	10
9	Taipei, Chinese	150.6	2.6	12		retained imports ^a	63.5	1.1	9
10	Singapore	144.1	2.5	15	10	Taipei, Chinese	127.3	2.1	13
	domestic exports	79.7	1.4	19
	re-exports	64.4	1.1	10

11	Russian Federation	135.2	2.4	26	11	Switzerland	96.3	1.6	15
12	Malaysia	100.7	1.8	8	12	Australia	88.6	1.5	22
13	Switzerland	100.6	1.8	14	13	Malaysia	81.1	1.4	1
14	Saudi Arabia	88.5	1.6	23	14	Thailand	75.7	1.3	17
15	Thailand	80.3	1.4	17	15	Russian Federation	74.5	1.2	24
16	Brazil	73.1	1.3	21	16	India	69.7	1.2	23
17	Australia	70.4	1.2	8	17	Turkey	67.7	1.1	31
18	Norway	68.1	1.2	14	18	Poland	66.9	1.1	21
19	Indonesia	60.7	1.1	6	19	Czech Republic ^b	51.3	0.9	26
20	United Arab Emirates	58.1	1.0	17	20	Brazil	50.7	0.8	2

21	India	54.7	1.0	11	21	Hungary	47.7	0.8	26
22	Poland	52.3	0.9	27	22	Norway	39.9	0.7	14
23	Czech Republic	48.7	0.9	27	23	Philippines	39.3	0.7	6
24	Turkey	46.6	0.8	29	24	South Africa	38.1	0.6	30
25	Hungary	42.7	0.8	24	25	Israel	36.4	0.6	3
26	Philippines	37.1	0.7	2	26	United Arab Emirates	34.4	0.6	10
27	South Africa	36.5	0.6	23	27	Saudi Arabia	34.1	0.6	5
28	Iran, Islamic Rep. of	33.4	0.6	18	28	Indonesia	32.4	0.5	4
29	Israel	31.6	0.6	8	29	Iran, Islamic Rep. of	27.6	0.5	24
30	Argentina	29.3	0.5	14	30	Viet Nam	24.0	0.4	26

Total of above ^c		5,132	90.2	'	Total of above ^c		5,383	90.2	'
World (excl. intra-EU trade) ^c		5,687	100.0	15	World (excl. intra-EU trade) ^c		5,965	100.0	15

a Retained imports are defined as imports less re-exports.
b Imports are valued f.o.b.
c Includes significant re-exports or imports for re-exports.

Leading exporters and importers in world trade in commercial services, 2003
(Billion dollars and percentage)
(Source: WTO)

Rank	Exporters	Value	Share	Annual percentage change	Rank	Importers	Value	Share	Annual percentage change

1	United States	282.5	16.0	4	1	United States	218.2	12.5	6
2	United Kingdom	129.5	7.3	5	2	Germany	167.0	9.6	12
3	Germany	111.7	6.3	12	3	United Kingdom	112.4	6.4	11
4	France	98.0	5.6	14	4	Japan	109.7	6.3	3
5	Spain	76.4	4.3	23	5	France	81.6	4.7	20
6	Italy	72.8	4.1	23	6	Italy	74.1	4.3	21
7	Japan ^a	70.2	4.0	8	7	Netherlands	66.2	3.8	17
8	Netherlands	64.1	3.6	18	8	China	53.8	3.1	...
9	China	44.5	2.5	...	9	Ireland	48.5	2.8	20
10	Hong Kong, China	43.2	2.5	0	10	Canada	47.8	2.7	14
11	Belgium	41.7	2.4	17	11	Spain	46.1	2.6	22
12	Austria	41.4	2.3	19	12	Belgium	41.4	2.4	17
13	Canada	39.2	2.2	8	13	Austria	40.6	2.3	18
14	Ireland	35.3	2.0	26	14	Korea, Republic of	38.7	2.2	10
15	Switzerland	32.7	1.9	17	15	Sweden	29.6	1.7	25
16	Denmark	32.6	1.9	20	16	Denmark	29.1	1.7	16
17	Korea, Republic of	31.2	1.8	15	17	Singapore	27.2	1.6	0
18	Sweden	31.0	1.8	32	18	Russian Federation	26.7	1.5	13
21	Greece	24.4	1.4	21	21	Australia	21.1	1.2	19
22	Luxembourg	23.8	1.4	18	22	Switzerland	19.9	1.1	17
24	Norway	22.2	1.3	16	24	Norway	19.5	1.1	18
25	Australia	20.6	1.2	18	25	Thailand	18.1	1.0	9
26	Turkey	17.3	1.0	17	26	Indonesia	17.7	1.0	...
27	Russian Federation	15.9	0.9	18	27	Mexico	17.4	1.0	2
28	Thailand	15.5	0.9	2	28	Malaysia	16.4	0.9	1
29	Malaysia	12.8	0.7	'13	29	Luxembourg	15.8	0.9	16
30	Mexico	12.5	0.7	0	30	Brazil	14.6	0.8	7

Total of above		1,521	86.3	'	Total of above		1,488	85.4	'
	World	1,763	100.0	12		World	1,743	100.0	12

a Provisional Secretariat estimate for exports in 2003 is based on the methodology applied by the Bank of Japan up to 2002.